12 Mar 2026
| 12 Mar 2026
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
ESD Ideas: Quantifying global and regional contributions to climate change projection uncertainty
Abstract. Hawkins and Sutton (2009) developed a framework to partition total uncertainty in future climate projections into three components: internal variability, model uncertainty and scenario uncertainty. Here, we propose an extension of this framework that separates the contributions of global and regional processes. This enables a more physically based interpretation and improved understanding of the origins of projection uncertainty.
Competing interests: At least one of the (co-)authors is a member of the editorial board of Earth System Dynamics.
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