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https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-517
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-517
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
12 Mar 2026
| 12 Mar 2026
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
ESD Ideas: Quantifying global and regional contributions to climate change projection uncertainty
Abstract. Hawkins and Sutton (2009) developed a framework to partition total uncertainty in future climate projections into three components: internal variability, model uncertainty and scenario uncertainty. Here, we propose an extension of this framework that separates the contributions of global and regional processes. This enables a more physically based interpretation and improved understanding of the origins of projection uncertainty.
How to cite. Bintanja, D., de Vries, H., and van der Wiel, K.: ESD Ideas: Quantifying global and regional contributions to climate change projection uncertainty, EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-517, 2026.
Competing interests: At least one of the (co-)authors is a member of the editorial board of Earth System Dynamics.
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Daniëlle Bintanja
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, The Netherlands
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht (IMAU), University Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands
Hylke de Vries
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, The Netherlands
Karin van der Wiel
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, The Netherlands
Short summary
We present a method to separate uncertainties from global and regional climate processes within the Hawkins & Sutton (2009) framework, partitioning sources of uncertainty in future climate projections. This helps interpret sources of uncertainty in future climate projections and informs adaptation planning. Focusing on regional projections reduces total uncertainty, highlighting the value of isolating regional uncertainties when developing regional climate information.
We present a method to separate uncertainties from global and regional climate processes within...