Hydrological Memory Regulates River Basin Recovery from Climate Extremes: Evidence from China’s Major River Basins

Abstract. Hydrological memory from climate extremes depends not only on disturbance magnitude but also on the persistence of antecedent basin storage. This study developed a Hydrological Memory Framework (HMF) to quantify basin-scale hydrological memory and assess its influence on resilience across eight major river basins in China during 1981–2025. Hydrological memory was estimated using the Catchment Forgetting Curve (CFC), while drought and flood recovery were evaluated from standardized hydrological anomalies. Principal Component Analysis, Random Forest regression, generalized additive models, and mixed-effects modelling were used to identify environmental controls and quantify the memory–resilience relationship. Hydrological memory varied markedly among basins, from less than 3 years in the humid Yangtze and Pearl basins to approximately 5–6 years in the arid Heihe and Tarim basins. Recovery time increased strongly with memory duration (R² = 0.81, p < 0.001), and drought recovery was generally two to three times longer than flood recovery. Mixed-effects modelling confirmed hydrological memory as the dominant predictor of recovery time (β = 0.68, p < 0.001), with the full model explaining 84% of the observed variability. Random Forest analysis identified groundwater storage (28.4%), climatic aridity (22.7%), soil moisture persistence (17.9%), and basin elevation (12.6%) as the principal controls on memory. The results show that antecedent storage exerts a measurable control on post-extreme recovery and basin resilience. The HMF provides a process-based basis for identifying vulnerable basins and improving climate-adaptive water resources management.