Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4761
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4761
18 Aug 2026
 | 18 Aug 2026
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).

An extensible, algorithmic framework to enumerate, ascertain, and compare mechanical properties from common snowpit observations

Mary Kate Connelly, Philipp Laurens Rosendahl, Valentin Adam, and Samuel V. Verplanck

Abstract. Mechanical properties of snow, such as Young’s modulus and Poisson's ratio, are used in avalanche release models but rarely measured directly in snowpits. Researchers chain published parameterizations to estimate these properties, but the combinations and their practical coverage have not been systematically compared. We present SnowPyt-MechParams, an extensible, graph-based framework that encodes parameterizations as a directed acyclic graph, enumerates valid pathways, and propagates measurement uncertainty through each one. For an example dataset, we developed SnowPylot to parse CAAML files from the SnowPilot database, structuring 50,278 snowpits (371,429 layers, 2015–2025 water years) into 14,776 slabs from Extended Column Test results with propagation. As an example application, we implemented pathways for the shear component of slab weight per unit area with and without elastic properties. The highest-coverage shear-weight pathway succeeds for 5,470 slabs (37.0 %), while the highest-coverage shear-weight-with-elasticity pathway succeeds for only 687 slabs (4.6 %), reflecting elasticity’s longer calculation chains. Slab bending stiffness, D11, carries a median relative uncertainty of 78 % (IQR: 56–85 %). Because multiple pathways can reach the same target, estimates vary substantially, with a median max/min ratio for D11 of 32 (up to 63) per slab. These results demonstrate the framework's utility to systematically calculate coverage, uncertainty, and range in mechanical properties from snowpit observations using different parameterizations.

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Mary Kate Connelly, Philipp Laurens Rosendahl, Valentin Adam, and Samuel V. Verplanck

Status: open (until 29 Sep 2026)

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Mary Kate Connelly, Philipp Laurens Rosendahl, Valentin Adam, and Samuel V. Verplanck

Model code and software

SnowPyt-MechParams Mary Kate Connelly https://github.com/connellymk/SnowPyt-MechParams

SnowPylot Mary Kate Connelly https://github.com/connellymk/snowpylot

Mary Kate Connelly, Philipp Laurens Rosendahl, Valentin Adam, and Samuel V. Verplanck
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Latest update: 18 Aug 2026
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Short summary
Avalanche models need snow properties that field teams rarely measure directly. We created a flexible framework that combines snowpit observations with published methods, tracks uncertainty, and shows where calculations fail. Applied to 14,776 snow slabs, simple weight estimates worked for up to 37%, but richer estimates including snow stiffness worked for only 4.6%. Stiffness estimates also varied widely, showing that missing observations and method choice strongly affect avalanche predictions.
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