Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4365
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4365
24 Jul 2026
 | 24 Jul 2026
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics (NPG).

Delayed State Evolution in Rate-and-State Earthquake Nucleation: Amplification, Localization, and Scaling

Srđan Kostić and Nebojša Vasović

Abstract. Rate-and-state friction assumes instantaneous adaptation of state to slip velocity, but the consequences of this temporal assumption for earthquake nucleation remain poorly constrained. We introduce a constitutive response time tc into ageing-law feedback and isolate its effect in a spatially distributed fault model. Eight simulations use the same Master configuration and differ only in tc = 0–0.12 s. Peak velocity increases by approximately 87 %, from 7.38 × 10⁻³ to 1.38 × 10⁻² m s⁻¹, while finite delays permit local crossing of 10⁻² m s⁻¹. The response separates into a moderate-velocity footprint that remains approximately 0.918 km wide and a delay-sensitive high-velocity core that expands to approximately 0.449 km. The response remains localized, separating constitutive amplification from subsequent large-scale propagation. To our knowledge, this is the first spatially distributed demonstration that explicit finite response time in ageing-law feedback can create a high-velocity inner core within a localized nucleation region. The diagnostic Πd = tc Vmax/Dc relates delay to state-evolution time. The results establish temporal state adaptation as an independent constitutive dimension and provide benchmarks for laboratory calibration and fully dynamic modelling.

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Srđan Kostić and Nebojša Vasović

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Srđan Kostić and Nebojša Vasović
Srđan Kostić and Nebojša Vasović

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Short summary
Earthquakes begin when slow movement along a fault accelerates. Using numerical simulations, we examined how a delayed response in fault friction affects this early process. The delay increased slip, focused movement into narrower zones, and produced consistent patterns under different conditions, even without sustained rupture. The findings show that frictional memory can organize earthquake preparation and help interpret fault monitoring signals and recognize approaching unstable movement.
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