Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4332
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4332
07 Oct 2026
 | 07 Oct 2026
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).

Incorporating pan-Arctic excess ground ice across structurally distinct Land Surface Models: Community Land Model (CLM5.1) and Common Land Model (CoLM2014)

Jiawen Zhu, Linyang Guo, Matvey V. Debolskiy, Kjetil S. Aas, Lei Cai, Fang Li, Sebastian Westermann, and Hanna Lee

Abstract. Accurately representing permafrost thaw processes in Earth System Models (ESMs) is critical for predicting future climate-carbon feedbacks. While gradual top-down thaw schemes are standard in most of the CMIP6 models, large-scale land surface models increasingly incorporate excess ground ice physics to capture abrupt thaw and subsequent land subsidence. These parameterizations, however, are typically developed and evaluated within single-model frameworks making it difficult to understand how underlying model structure influences the model performance. This study integrates an identical excess-ice ground ice physics into the Common Land Model (CoLM, version 2014) and evaluates it against the Community Land Model (CLM, version 5.1). Using paired historical sensitivity experiments (1901−2014) with and without excess ice across the pan-Arctic, we investigate the effects of excess ice on physical and biogeochemical properties. In this study, we evaluate three configurations: CLM, standard CoLM, and CoLM coupled with a dynamic global vegetation model (CoLM-DV). Our results show that while all configurations capture key physical processes of excess ice such as subsurface latent heat buffering and progressive ice loss under warming, the magnitude and spatial distribution of these responses diverge substantially. The CoLM simulates a much higher sensitivity to warming than CLM, undergoing widespread excess ice loss than the CLM. Biogeochemical responses diverge even more i.e. excess ice melt suppresses regional GPP in CLM (by −40 to −70 TgC yr−1) and standard CoLM (by −5 to −20 TgC yr−1) due to warming anomalies maintained by latent heat absorption. On the other hand, CoLM-DV simulates a positive GPP response (+15 to +25 TgC yr−1) driven by localized warming and wettening that stimulates shrub and grass expansion over bare soil. This inter-model divergence demonstrates that identical physical parameterizations create significantly different climate-carbon feedback trajectories depending on host-model structure and vegetation feedbacks. This work highlights cross-model benchmarking as a vital tool for robust parameterization development across the permafrost modeling community.

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Jiawen Zhu, Linyang Guo, Matvey V. Debolskiy, Kjetil S. Aas, Lei Cai, Fang Li, Sebastian Westermann, and Hanna Lee

Status: open (until 02 Dec 2026)

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Jiawen Zhu, Linyang Guo, Matvey V. Debolskiy, Kjetil S. Aas, Lei Cai, Fang Li, Sebastian Westermann, and Hanna Lee
Jiawen Zhu, Linyang Guo, Matvey V. Debolskiy, Kjetil S. Aas, Lei Cai, Fang Li, Sebastian Westermann, and Hanna Lee
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Short summary
Frozen ground across the Arctic stores large amounts of carbon and supports fragile ecosystems. We improved a computer model to include excess ice and compared it with two other model setups. All showed that this excess ice can slow warming at first, but their estimates of excess ice loss, soil change, and plant growth differed greatly. Better comparisons between models are needed to improve predictions of Arctic change and its effects on the global climate.
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