Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4271
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4271
24 Aug 2026
 | 24 Aug 2026
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).

Seasonal and regional sensitivities of secondary inorganic aerosols to NH3 and NOx emission reductions over China

Jiayu Xu, Alain Clappier, Philippe Thunis, Xingpei Ye, Lu Li, and Lin Zhang

Abstract. Secondary inorganic aerosols, comprising sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium (SNA), are major PM2.5 pollution contributors in China, but the relative effectiveness of controlling their gaseous precursors (NH3, NOx, and SO2) remains insufficiently quantified across seasons and regions. Here we use year-round WRF-Chem sensitivity simulations for 2017 to assess responses of surface SNA, population-weighted exposure, and PM2.5-related premature mortality to independent 50 % reductions in anthropogenic NH3, NOx, and SO2 emissions over China. We find that NH3 and NOx reductions each decrease national mean SNA by 24–36 % across seasons, whereas SO2 reductions produce smaller decreases of 5–15 %. NH3 reduction is most effective in winter, decreasing national mean SNA by 32.7 % (-3.88 μg m-3), while NOx reduction is more effective in spring and summer (up to -35.6 %). Chemical-regime analysis using a potential impact indicator reveals that NH3-sensitive regimes dominate more than 70 % of China in winter, shifting to NOx-sensitive regimes across eastern China in spring and summer, while SO2-sensitive regimes appear mainly over the summertime arid west. Seasonal regime evolution shows a clear east–west contrast broadly aligned with the Hu Line. Halving either NH3 or NOx emissions could avert ~200,000 PM2.5-related SNA-attributable premature deaths annually, with NOx reductions offering larger national benefits and NH3 reductions yielding greater benefits in several megacities. These results support seasonally and regionally differentiated NH3 and NOx control strategies for future PM2.5 mitigation in China.

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Jiayu Xu, Alain Clappier, Philippe Thunis, Xingpei Ye, Lu Li, and Lin Zhang

Status: open (until 05 Oct 2026)

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Jiayu Xu, Alain Clappier, Philippe Thunis, Xingpei Ye, Lu Li, and Lin Zhang
Jiayu Xu, Alain Clappier, Philippe Thunis, Xingpei Ye, Lu Li, and Lin Zhang
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Short summary
Fine particles remain a major threat to health across China. We ran year-round air quality simulations, halving emissions of ammonia, nitrogen oxides, and sulfur dioxide in turn. Reducing ammonia is most effective in winter, while reducing nitrogen oxides works better in spring and summer, with a clear east–west divide across the country. Cutting either gas could prevent about 200,000 premature deaths nationwide each year, supporting controls tailored to season and region.
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