Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4223
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4223
28 Jul 2026
 | 28 Jul 2026
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).

Surface runoff and soil evaporation dominate the sensitivity of land surface models to soil parameters

Matthias Cuntz, Stephan Thober, Anne Verhoef, Yijian Zeng, Aaron Boone, Agnès Ducharne, Sujan Koirala, David M. Lawrence, Philipp de Vrese, Carsten Montzka, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Harry Vereecken, Dani Or, Salma Tafasca, Naoki Mizukami, Rich Ellis, Patrick C. McGuire, and Lukas Gudmundsson

Abstract. Land surface models (LSMs) are simulating land–atmosphere exchanges and are widely used in hydrology, operational weather prediction, research meteorology, and to assess land surface responses to future climate change. LSMs exhibit distinct differences in simulated water fluxes due to varying physical process representations and input land characteristics. We challenged seven state-of-the-art LSMs by altering soil hydraulic parameters from representing sand or silt to disentangle the responses of the water fluxes. The LSMs reacted differently due to complex, sometimes counter-intuitive interactions of infiltration, soil evaporation, and plant transpiration. We identified the representations of surface runoff and soil evaporation as the two main reasons behind model differences. We show how subgrid parameterization of a saturated fraction led to diverging sensitivities of runoff to soil parameters. Soil evaporation was the largest and most sensitive share of evapotranspiration in almost all models. Process parameterizations at the soil surface are identified as critical and should be improved to lead to more consistent flux partitioning. We demonstrate here that it is possible and worthwhile in model intercomparison studies to relate model results to specific process descriptions, helping users to understand model results of LSMs and helping modelling groups to identify weaknesses and move forward.

Competing interests: At least one of the (co-)authors is a member of the editorial board of Geoscientific Model Development.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this paper. While Copernicus Publications makes every effort to include appropriate place names, the final responsibility lies with the authors. Views expressed in the text are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher.
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Matthias Cuntz, Stephan Thober, Anne Verhoef, Yijian Zeng, Aaron Boone, Agnès Ducharne, Sujan Koirala, David M. Lawrence, Philipp de Vrese, Carsten Montzka, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Harry Vereecken, Dani Or, Salma Tafasca, Naoki Mizukami, Rich Ellis, Patrick C. McGuire, and Lukas Gudmundsson

Status: open (until 22 Sep 2026)

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Matthias Cuntz, Stephan Thober, Anne Verhoef, Yijian Zeng, Aaron Boone, Agnès Ducharne, Sujan Koirala, David M. Lawrence, Philipp de Vrese, Carsten Montzka, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Harry Vereecken, Dani Or, Salma Tafasca, Naoki Mizukami, Rich Ellis, Patrick C. McGuire, and Lukas Gudmundsson
Matthias Cuntz, Stephan Thober, Anne Verhoef, Yijian Zeng, Aaron Boone, Agnès Ducharne, Sujan Koirala, David M. Lawrence, Philipp de Vrese, Carsten Montzka, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Harry Vereecken, Dani Or, Salma Tafasca, Naoki Mizukami, Rich Ellis, Patrick C. McGuire, and Lukas Gudmundsson
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Short summary
Land surface models (LSMs) are essential tools to analyze future climate change. Here we pushed state-of-the-art LSMs out of their comfort zone revealing hidden connections between processes encoded into the models. The LSMs reacted differently due to complex, sometimes counter-intuitive interactions of different water fluxes. We identified surface runoff and soil evaporation as the two main reasons behind model differences, which should be improved by using more mechanistic descriptions.
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