Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4007
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4007
21 Jul 2026
 | 21 Jul 2026
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).

iceHIST v1.0: a cosmogenic-nuclide model suite for testing glacier and ice-sheet histories

Richard S. Jones

Abstract. Cosmogenic-nuclide inventories in glaciated landscapes record changes in glaciers or ice sheets, and other surface processes. Scenario-based models can extract glacier and ice-sheet history information from these inventories, but many approaches remain specialised to a single site, data type, scenario structure, or inference method. Here I present iceHIST v1.0, a model suite for testing hypotheses about glacier and ice-sheet history using in situ 10Be, 14C and/or 26Al. iceHIST supports depth profiles (e.g. bedrock cores), surface samples as transects, and combined core-plus-transect datasets, including modern subaerial and subglacial samples. Four scenario families define the tested histories: OneStage, DynamicPeriods, TimeSeries and IceSurface. These scenarios encompass simple cover histories, repeated exposure and burial intervals, thresholded time-series histories, and explicit or imported ice-surface histories. For each scenario, a common forward model integrates nuclide production over depth and time, accounts for radioactive decay, ice cover, and sample thickness, and includes options for snow shielding, subaerial and subglacial erosion, and inherited inventories. Model predictions are compared with data using Monte Carlo screening, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) posterior exploration, or likelihood weighting of fixed imported histories. Synthetic demonstrations illustrate surface and depth-profile recovery, time-series threshold recovery, thinner-than-present lowstand testing, a Monte Carlo-to-MCMC workflow, and ranking of imported ensemble histories. Applied in this manner, iceHIST can determine how long glaciers were larger or smaller than today, whether ice sheets thinned below current levels and subsequently re-thickened, and identify which glacier or ice-sheet simulations best match cosmogenic-nuclide observations.

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Richard S. Jones

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Richard S. Jones
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Short summary
This paper presents a computer model that helps reconstruct how glaciers and ice sheets changed in the past. The model compares measured signals in rocks with many possible histories of ice cover, erosion and exposure. It can test whether ice was once thicker or thinner than today, how long exposed areas were ice-free, and which ice-sheet simulations best match geological evidence.
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