Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3843
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3843
31 Jul 2026
 | 31 Jul 2026
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).

Globally Applicable Discharge Reanalysis using SWOT observations

Izzy Probyn, Jeffrey Neal, Stephen J. Chuter, and Paul Bates

Abstract. Global river discharge observations are critical for climate and hydrological research, used for water resource management, risk mitigation, infrastructure and environment conservation, among many other areas. However, existing observations are limited in availability, accuracy and spatial extent, with uneven geographical distribution and high levels of uncertainty often recorded. The NASA SWOT mission provides the opportunity to fill this gap, providing water level observations for all rivers exceeding 100 m in width worldwide. Combined with the daily discharge model GRADES-hydroDL, we present a statistical method to produce a set of global virtual gauging stations with the same temporal resolution as the satellite observations. The high level of accuracy that the SWOT water surface elevation observations allows us to improve the dynamics of discharge estimation over the input discharge model. For our validation gauges, where we compared modelled discharge to observed values, 66 % of Pearson R values are larger than 0.9, showing the method’s skill at replicating temporal patterns in recorded flow. The median Root Mean Square Error, RMSE, of the input discharge set is 36.3 m3 s−1 larger than that of our proposed method, and the NSE 0.3 lower. However, our method fails to improve the bias; the median absolute normalised bias is 0.10 (10 %) higher in our model than the input model, indicating that while the inclusion of Earth Observation can greatly improve the discharge time series dynamics, the trade-off is an increased bias in the distribution. Nevertheless, as the record of SWOT observations increases in length, these results should improve and the margins of bias difference decrease. The result is a globally applicable reanalysis dataset of discharge, which will complement existing physically based models and ground observations, and can be widely used within global hydrological models.

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Izzy Probyn, Jeffrey Neal, Stephen J. Chuter, and Paul Bates

Status: open (until 11 Sep 2026)

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Izzy Probyn, Jeffrey Neal, Stephen J. Chuter, and Paul Bates
Izzy Probyn, Jeffrey Neal, Stephen J. Chuter, and Paul Bates
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Short summary
Existing discharge observations are limited, but are essential for climate research and management, among many other areas. We present a statistical method to predict discharge on a global scale, by combining water level observations from the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite with a daily discharge model. For quality observations, we see significant improvement over the input discharge model, with normalised root mean square errors a median of 0.13 lower and NSE 0.3 higher.
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