the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
| 12 Aug 2026
Probabilistic modelling for avalanche hazard and risk assessment
Abstract. The number of requirements for hazard and risk assessment of mass movements like avalanches has increased over time. We are presenting a feasibility study of applying the approach of probabilistic hazard and risk assessment, which was originally developed for seismic hazards and risks, to avalanches. This modelling approach is based on the idea of simulating a large range of possible events and associate probabilities or rates to these events. The aim of such a probabilistic modelling approach is to provide more nuanced modelling results as a basis for consistent hazard and risk management. It allows to derive continuous intensity frequency curves for any location in the affected area. Furthermore, continuous loss frequency curves can be derived by combining the simulated event intensities with affected objects and their vulnerabilities. The probabilistic modelling approach is enabling several products and applications, which are not possible with the current Swiss approach of hazard and risk assessment for avalanches. This first attempt of the probabilistic modelling approach to avalanches provides plausible results, which are in line with existing hazard assessments. Furthermore, it provides more differentiated results by enabling hazard maps for any given return period, and it enables the generation of maps depicting the probabilities of being affected by avalanches of a certain avalanche intensity. These types of products are not possible with the current Swiss hazard assessment approach.
Competing interests: Yves Bühler, one of the (co-)authors is a member of the editorial board of Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences.
Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this paper. While Copernicus Publications makes every effort to include appropriate place names, the final responsibility lies with the authors. Views expressed in the text are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher.- Preprint
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Status: final response (author comments only)
- RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2026-3799', John Sykes, 18 Sep 2026
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RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2026-3799', Anonymous Referee #2, 14 Oct 2026
Reviewer Comments
Probabilistic modelling for avalanche hazard and risk assessment (Jan Kleinn et al.), submitted to NHESS
Summary:
In essence this manuscript presents a method of developing ‘composite hazard’ maps (such as the type proposed by Jakob et al., 2022 for debris flows and floods) for snow avalanche problems. The novel aspects are mainly:
a) Application of the concept of composite hazard maps to avalanche problems
b) The development of the framework to estimate the avalanche hazard intensity curve at different locations
c) The actual calculation of the hazard intensities and related outputs
The introduction and discussion sections provide some context to the problem and the potential applications of the approach to hazard mapping and assessment.
General feedback:
It is clear that significant work went into this project, and that it represents an important foundation for the application of a new type of hazard map to avalanche problems. However, as presented the manuscript does not communicate the novel aspects in a clear way, and leaves the reader challenged to make connections between the problem, the framework and proposed methods, and the applications of the results to avalanche hazard and risk assessment.
The impact of this work would be very much diminished if published in the current form. The manuscript should be re-organized to much more succinctly and directly state the specific problem it attempts to solve, separate more clearly the proposed mapping framework from the methods used to develop the required parameter values. The results of the work are mostly examples of the potential applications of the approach, and should be presented as such. And finally the discussion and conclusions should precisely reference the problem statement and any limitations or nuances in the application of the method.
Recommendation:
I recommend that the authors re-submit for review the manuscript following major revisions. These should include the organizational changes noted above, as well as the focusing on the following:
- Concise and direct reporting on the work throughout to highlight the main novel aspects of the work and only the most direct applications hazard and risk assessment
- Length and level of detail in all sections calibrated to the rest of the manuscript (some sections too long and detailed)
- Careful attention to phrasing, sentence structure and punctuation
- Improvements to formatting of equations, and presentation of definitions of variables
- Careful preparation of all map figures and maps to be legible, properly numbered/lettered, and fully described in text and suitable for publicationReferences:
Jakob, M., Davidson, S., Bullard, G., Busslinger, M., Collier‐Pandya, B., Grover, P., & Lau, C. A. (2022). Debris‐flood hazard assessments in steep streams. Water Resources Research, 58(4), e2021WR030907.
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3799-RC2
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This manuscript present a novel and valuable approach to avalanche hazard mapping using probabilistic modelling methods. The feasibility study illustrates the added value of the approach and compares it to existing automated avalanche terrain mapping methods. However, the writing would benefit from significant refinement and the general claims go beyond what the focused case study supports. See the attached PDF for detailed comments.