| 21 Jul 2026
Constraining 2020 methane emissions in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East using TROPOMI satellite data
Abstract. Methane (CH4) is the second most abundant anthropogenic greenhouse gas after CO2. Emissions from the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East (EMME) are important, as the region hosts a large share of global oil and gas production and thus offers significant mitigation potential. We use TROPOMI satellite observations in combination with the Lagrangian transport model FLEXPART and the inversion framework FLEXINVERT+ to estimate CH4 emissions in the EMME region for 2020. We perform sensitivity experiments to address methodological challenges and better quantify emission uncertainties.
Our inversions show robust downward corrections of emissions around the Persian Gulf relative to the EDGAR v8.0 inventory, consistent with the recently released EDGAR_2025_GHG dataset, yielding total emissions of 22.4 (±1.9) Tg yr−1 in the EMME region. At the national scale, we derive emissions of 4.6 (±0.4), 3.6 (±1.1), 3.5 (±0.8), 2.8 (±0.4), and 1.9 (±0.4) Tg yr−1 CH4 for Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Iraq, and Egypt, respectively. While many countries in the region appear to substantially underestimate their emissions, Greece, subject to mandatory reporting requirements, reports emissions comparable to our inversion estimates. Our results suggest a decrease in emissions in the EMME region during 2020, coinciding with reduced oil demand during the COVID-19 epidemic.
Our satellite-based inversions provide robust constraints in regions with strong emission signals and good observational coverage (e.g. Iran, Iraq), while other regions show greater sensitivity to uncertainty settings and prior estimates. Our sensitivity analyses highlight the importance of baseline optimization and its associated uncertainty.
Competing interests: At least one of the (co-)authors is a member of the editorial board of Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics.
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