Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3753
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3753
29 Jul 2026
 | 29 Jul 2026
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).

Review article: How hazard-related disruptions become system-wide crises: event-level evidence on failure pathways and continuity functions, 1980–2025

Homa Bahmani

Abstract. Cascading disasters are increasingly recognized as systemic escalation processes, yet comparative evidence on how initial hazard impacts are transformed into wider crises remains fragmented. Resilience dimensions clarify how system weaknesses interact with triggering hazards and determine whether disruption is absorbed, contained, or transmitted. Drawing on a PRISMA-guided search and targeted supplementary searches, this review synthesizes 43 event-level cascading-disaster cases from 1980 to 2025 to identify failure pathways linking hazards, failure mechanisms, and resilience dimensions. Each event was coded for initiating hazards and transformed hazards, propagation stages, escalation points, failure mechanisms, impacts, and resilience dimensions. Results show that technological and infrastructure failures were the most recurrent transformed hazards, while lifeline failure and secondary hazards formed the main escalation points. Cascade severity depended less on the length of the propagation chain than on which critical functions failed and how disruption propagated through dependent systems. Failure mechanisms clustered around monitoring/control, transport/access, coordination, lifeline services, exposure management, and health-system protection. The resilience crosswalk revealed an interdependence–redundancy gap in which connected systems lacked fallback capacity. These pathways produced persistent recovery burdens. The review proposes a continuity-function framework for cascade-risk reduction, emphasizing monitoring and control, lifeline services, access and logistics, emergency coordination, and equity-sensitive social protection.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this paper. While Copernicus Publications makes every effort to include appropriate place names, the final responsibility lies with the authors. Views expressed in the text are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher.
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Homa Bahmani

Status: open (until 09 Sep 2026)

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Homa Bahmani
Homa Bahmani
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Latest update: 29 Jul 2026
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Short summary
This review shows how hazard impacts can escalate into broader crises when connected services fail. Across 43 real cases, failures in transport, power, water, health care, warning, and emergency response often allowed disruption to spread and recovery to become prolonged. The study argues that disaster planning should protect the basic functions that keep people safe and essential services working.
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