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https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3742
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3742
10 Jul 2026
 | 10 Jul 2026

Strengthening dust–cirrus relationships over Central Europe (2001–2025)

György Varga, Fruzsina Gresina, András Gelencsér, Adrienn Csávics, and Ágnes Rostási

Abstract. Saharan dust is increasingly recognized as an important driver of aerosol–cloud interactions over Europe, yet its long-term influence on cloud formation remains poorly understood. This study investigates changes in the relationship between dust intrusions and upper-level cloud properties over the Carpathian Basin during the 2001–2025 period using a combination of MERRA-2 reanalysis, MODIS satellite observations, HIRS outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data, and a database of 276 validated Saharan dust events.

The frequency of Saharan dust intrusions increased by nearly 70 % during the study period. Dust outbreaks were associated with enhanced high-cloud cover, increased cirrus reflectance, reduced effective ice particle radius, and lower OLR values. These relationships were particularly pronounced during spring, when thermodynamic conditions are most favourable for heterogeneous ice nucleation and cirrus development.

To quantify the temporal evolution of dust–cloud relationships, generalized additive models were applied to cloud and radiative variables. Atmospheric dust loading was a highly significant predictor in all seasonal models, while significant dust–time interaction terms demonstrated that cloud responses to dust have systematically strengthened over time. The strongest signals were observed for cirrus reflectance, high-cloud fraction, and OLR, indicating increasingly pronounced upper-tropospheric cloud responses under comparable dust-loading conditions.

The results suggest that Saharan dust has become an increasingly important factor influencing cloud formation and radiative processes over Central Europe. Together with growing evidence for more frequent ice-saturated and ice-supersaturated environments, the findings support the hypothesis that evolving upper-tropospheric conditions increasingly favour dust-associated cloud formation.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this paper. While Copernicus Publications makes every effort to include appropriate place names, the final responsibility lies with the authors. Views expressed in the text are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher.
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György Varga, Fruzsina Gresina, András Gelencsér, Adrienn Csávics, and Ágnes Rostási

Status: final response (author comments only)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2026-3742', Anonymous Referee #1, 19 Aug 2026
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', György Varga, 16 Sep 2026
    • AC3: 'Reply on RC1', György Varga, 21 Sep 2026
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2026-3742', Anonymous Referee #2, 10 Sep 2026
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', György Varga, 16 Sep 2026
    • AC4: 'Reply on RC2', György Varga, 21 Sep 2026
  • CC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2026-3742', Iarla Boyce, 28 Sep 2026
    • AC5: 'Reply on CC1', György Varga, 29 Sep 2026
György Varga, Fruzsina Gresina, András Gelencsér, Adrienn Csávics, and Ágnes Rostási
György Varga, Fruzsina Gresina, András Gelencsér, Adrienn Csávics, and Ágnes Rostási

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Short summary
Saharan dust increasingly reaches Central Europe, but its effects on clouds are not fully understood. Using satellite observations and atmospheric data from 2001 to 2025, we found that dust events are becoming more strongly linked to cloud formation than in the past. Dusty conditions were associated with brighter high-level clouds, smaller ice particles, and stronger effects on atmospheric radiation. These results suggest that the atmosphere is becoming increasingly sensitive to dust.
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