Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3701
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3701
06 Oct 2026
 | 06 Oct 2026
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).

Agricultural Flood Damage Assessment: A Systematic Review of Methods, Coverage, and Integration Gaps

Shokhrukh-Mirzo Jalilov, Haluk Gedikoglu, and Robert Maltsbarger

Abstract. Agricultural flooding causes tens of billions of dollars in annual losses globally, yet the methods used to assess these losses systematically capture only a fraction of their true economic scope. This systematic review synthesizes 65 peer-reviewed studies published between 1984 and 2025 to evaluate how agricultural flood damage is measured, what damage categories are covered, and where critical methodological gaps persist. We find a structural asymmetry across the reviewed literature – all 65 reviewed studies address direct immediate damages – primarily crop yield loss estimated through depth-damage functions or remote sensing – while direct induced effects appear in only 8 studies, indirect damages in 9, and intangible damages in fewer than 5. This asymmetry has persisted for four decades, through a major remote sensing revolution, because the dominant methods are structurally incapable of measuring damage categories beyond direct immediate losses. We introduce a Methods-by-Damage-Category Matrix that maps eight assessment methods against five damage categories, making the coverage gap visible and providing a diagnostic framework for method selection. Three post-2013 damage frontiers – long-term land productivity degradation, supply chain finance disruption, and farmer mental health – are identified as emerging categories warranting dedicated methodological development. Existing agricultural flood damage estimates used in benefit–cost analyses and disaster compensation are systematically downward-biased; closing this bias requires integrating remote sensing-based physical detection with economic valuation methods capable of capturing the full damage taxonomy.

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Shokhrukh-Mirzo Jalilov, Haluk Gedikoglu, and Robert Maltsbarger

Status: open (until 17 Nov 2026)

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Shokhrukh-Mirzo Jalilov, Haluk Gedikoglu, and Robert Maltsbarger
Shokhrukh-Mirzo Jalilov, Haluk Gedikoglu, and Robert Maltsbarger
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Short summary
Floods cost agriculture billions of dollars annually, yet damage assessment methods capture only part of the true cost. We reviewed 65 studies from 1984 to 2025 and found that nearly all focus on immediate crop losses, while soil degradation, supply chain disruption, and farmer wellbeing go unmeasured. This means flood protection investments are routinely under-justified. We map which assessment methods cover which damage types, revealing the most critical gaps for future research.
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