| 15 Jul 2026
Chasing a millennium of European storms: a synthesis of three decades of multidisciplinary research
Abstract. Understanding the long-term variability of coastal storms is essential for assessing future coastal risks in a context of accelerating climate change and sea-level rise. This study synthesizes eighty-one historical and geophysical storm chronologies from western Europe to investigate storm activity over the last millennium. To compare heterogeneous records, a decadal Storm Index (SI) was developed to quantify the relative occurrence of storm impacts within eight geographical regions and was visualized using a novel “storm stripes” approach designed to highlight both temporal and spatial variations in storm activity.
The synthesis reveals substantial regional differences in storm occurrence through time. The decrease in air and Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) since 1300 during the early LIA may have favoured higher storm activity in northern Europe, peaking around 1450–1470 during one of its coolest phases, characterized by weak northern European SST and a significant AMO trough. While the early LIA was mainly driven by NAO+ patterns, transitional NAO+ to NAO- phases may have led to the stormiest periods in the north. Conversely, the increase in air temperature and Mediterranean SST during the late LIA may explain the significant later stormy phase in the western Mediterranean, consistent with a large-scale NAO- phase but with its stormiest peak (1760–1850 AD) linked to a NAO- to NAO+ transitional period at a finer temporal scale. These contrasting patterns appear broadly consistent with variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation, although the influence of other modes of climate variability remains uncertain. By combining historical and geophysical evidence at a continental scale, this study provides a new perspective on the long-term evolution of European coastal storm activity. The results highlight the complexity of storm–climate interactions and demonstrate the value of multidisciplinary paleostorm reconstructions for improving our understanding of future climate adaptation and coastal mitigation strategies.
The manuscript presents a compilation of records of storms spanning the last millennium, including documentary evidence and geophysical archives. An interesting storm index is calculated for different regions for each decade, allowing spatial differences in storminess over time to be estimated. The results indicate high storminess in the British Isles during the early LIA and then a southward shift during the mid and late LIA to higher storminess in southern Europe, which is an important finding. In the discussion these changes are related to sea temperature patterns and modes of atmospheric circulation (NAO and ENSO).
Main comments
Other points:
- should the years have C.E or A.D. throughout?
- Check that first mention of all acronyms (e.g. NAO, AMO) are written in full and abbreviated after.
- ‘millenary’ is an uncommon word for the last millennium, perhaps consider using millennium or millennia?
- Line 39-41 – quite a limited list of references for a broad topic, so perhaps put ‘e.g.’ Also are there any references for the last sentence about how palaeo records are used to refine models?
- Line 63 – references needed for European overwash deposits
- Line 65 – 74 – This paragraph doesn’t include the evolution of the peatland based aeolian reconstructions during the 2000’s (Bjorck and Clemmensen, 2004; De Jong et al, 2006; 2009). Similarly at line 77 the peatland aeolian records should be acknowledged alongside those studies using marine incursions.
- Line 80 – more references are needed in addition to Goslin to represent the different proxies now being used
Line 107 – ‘If European intense storms have always occurred throughout history’, consider removing this statement as rather general. ‘the variation… mostly depends on …NAO, AMOC or temperature variation’ this phrasing should be made less certain I think, as the literature debates the causes of storm variability.
Line 133 – consider putting some example references for each of these proxy types. I am unaware of the coral based storm records, and cannot find any listed in Table 1, so this would be beneficial. Alternatively refer to Table 1 and make the geophysical archives listed in Table 1 more clear (rather than having ‘Multiple types’ listed), which may improve the clarity.
Line 136 – Orme et al 2016 paper has river inwash deposits within a coastal lake, not marine overwash deposits
Line 173 - 174 – ‘data had to be critically assessed regarding authorship (e.g. whether the author was a direct witness…)’ why is this important?
Table 1 - Several storminess reconstructions are missing from the compilation. Were these removed through the screening process or missed? I have noticed the following ones are not included but please check for others:
> Orme et al., 2016 peatland records from Scotland in Quaternary Science Reviews
> Orme et al. 2017 a storm record from Spain in Geology
> Orme et al 2026 a storminess record from Ireland in Climate of the Past
> Hass (1996) an ocean sediment based storm reconstruction in Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology
> Vaasma et al. 2025, peatland storminess records in The Holocene
> Vandel et al. 2019 a storm record from Estonia in Quaternary Science Reviews
> Nielsen et al 2016 in Quaternary Science Reviews (although perhaps too far north for your study)
> Nielsen et al 2024 in The Holocene (also may be too far north)
Line 246-249 – put e.g. in front of these references as they are only a subset
Line 258 – ‘humid archives’ is an unusual description of peat and lake archives, what about wetland archives?
Line 274 and 286 – I am unsure about the inclusion of periods described as ‘climate instability’ or ‘climate deterioration’ as these are ambiguous terms and could refer to colder periods not storms. Please consider if these records/periods should be included in the compilation.
Line 296 – “vimers” I have never heard of this term related to storms and it needs an explanation or translation in brackets
Line 363 – the A3 and A4 areas are not at lower latitudes than the British isles area (although they don’t extend as far north). Would it be more accurate to say the storm track may have shifted south and east? So storms may have crossed France and tracked NE over southern Scandinavia?
Line 370 – ‘These two most significant and clear chronologies’ the focus on these two studies needs more justification and it is not clear why these are the most significant. Perhaps say they are geographically distinct to capture the southern and northern storm track positions? Or the areas most influenced by the NAO currently?
Figure 6 – mark on graph with arrows/labels which direction is el nino and la nina, or say in caption that shaded areas show El Nino
Minor corrections
- Line 33 - ‘of’ not ‘off’
- Line 34 – remove ‘As’
- Line 45 – not sure what coastal sensible systems are?
- Line 56 – Three not tree
- Line 73 – rather than macrotidal, coastal may be more accurate
Line 98 – ‘recent decades’ not ‘the last decades’ (and remove repetition of recent decades from next line)
Line 124 – perhaps ‘temporal approach to understand’ rather than ‘temporal depth to apprehend’
Line 141-142 – consider rephrasing the first sentence to explain more clearly and concisely what is meant
Line 296 – change ‘opposite’ to ‘other hand’.
Line 306 – change ‘excepted for the ‘ to ‘Aside from’
Line 352-357 – this is a long sentence, please revise and use fewer semicolons
Line 411 – think you mean early not late LIA.
Line 412 and 425 – no need to have the reference in both the sentence and in brackets
Line 422 – unclear what symmetric means in this context
Line 437 – use a different word than ‘infirm’, perhaps ‘contradict’.
Line 463 – perhaps ‘test’ rather than ‘precise’