Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3620
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3620
13 Jul 2026
 | 13 Jul 2026
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).

aiLand v1: Physics-Based Land Surface Emulator with Observational Fine-Tuning

Nina Raoult, Ewan Pinnington, Mario Santa Cruz, Florian Pinault, Baudouin Raoult, Natalie Zelenka, Gabriele Arduini, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Souhail Boussetta, Matthew Chantry, Patricia de Rosnay, Peter Dueben, and Christoph Rüdiger

Abstract. A stand-alone emulator of ECMWF's land surface scheme (ecLand) has been developed. This emulator, aiLand, uses a multi-layer perceptron architecture, chosen for its balance of accuracy and efficiency and for its differentiability, which is crucial for integration into data assimilation and parameter estimation systems. In this study, we introduce a two-stage learning framework that leverages both synthetic land surface model simulations and real-world observations. We first pretrain the surrogate on extensive ecLand outputs to capture the core dynamical behaviour of key land surface states, evaluating its accuracy, long-term stability, and transferability across variables, depths, and climates. We then fine-tune the pretrained model on in situ eddy-covariance flux observations for selected diagnostic variables, validating against independent flux-tower sites. The pretrained emulator reproduces ecLand's prognostic soil state with a 90-day RMSE of 1.19 K for surface soil temperature and 0.014 m3 m-3 for surface soil moisture, and remains stable over continuous 4-year autoregressive integrations. A single globally trained model outperforms biome-specialist baselines in cross-biome transfer, with residual errors concentrating in snow-insulated cold biomes where an insulating snowpack decouples the soil from atmospheric forcing. Fine-tuning on FLUXNET observations reduces latent heat flux RMSE by 30 % and sensible heat flux by 20 % at validation sites, while preserving prognostic state integrity and improving the physical consistency of the surface energy budget: per-site Bowen ratio error drops by 42 % and energy balance closure residuals fall from 13.4 W m2m-2 to 3 W m-2 and below. These results demonstrate that combining physics-based pretraining with observation-based fine-tuning provides a flexible pathway for building accurate, stable, and differentiable land surface emulators suitable for data assimilation and coupled modelling applications.

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Nina Raoult, Ewan Pinnington, Mario Santa Cruz, Florian Pinault, Baudouin Raoult, Natalie Zelenka, Gabriele Arduini, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Souhail Boussetta, Matthew Chantry, Patricia de Rosnay, Peter Dueben, and Christoph Rüdiger

Status: open (until 07 Sep 2026)

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Nina Raoult, Ewan Pinnington, Mario Santa Cruz, Florian Pinault, Baudouin Raoult, Natalie Zelenka, Gabriele Arduini, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Souhail Boussetta, Matthew Chantry, Patricia de Rosnay, Peter Dueben, and Christoph Rüdiger
Nina Raoult, Ewan Pinnington, Mario Santa Cruz, Florian Pinault, Baudouin Raoult, Natalie Zelenka, Gabriele Arduini, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Souhail Boussetta, Matthew Chantry, Patricia de Rosnay, Peter Dueben, and Christoph Rüdiger
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Latest update: 13 Jul 2026
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Short summary
The land surface shapes our weather and climate by controlling how heat and water move between the ground and the air, so the models representing it matter enormously. But they are costly to run and carry built-in errors. We built a faster artificial-intelligence version of one, then used real measurements from sites worldwide to correct some of these errors. The result stays reliable over years and better captures these heat and water exchanges—a quicker, more accurate tool for forecasting.
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