Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3583
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3583
27 Jul 2026
 | 27 Jul 2026
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).

CoMIAR v1.0: a hybrid system for multi-species adjoint inversion of atmospheric emissions with online adaptive regularization

Zelin Mai, Huizhong Shen, Qiming Liu, Ruixin Zhang, Peng Guo, Han Shen, Tiancheng Luan, Junpeng Xu, Jinling He, Zhiyu Zheng, Yilin Chen, Shunliu Zhao, and Amir Hakami

Abstract. Accurate estimates of anthropogenic emissions are fundamental to air quality and climate assessment. Satellite-based top-down inversion offers an independent constraint on bottom-up emission inventories, but two key limitations remain. First, dynamically constrained 4D-Var optimization often relies on fixed regularization parameters, which can destabilize convergence during iteration. Second, most inversions treat chemical species separately, even though atmospheric species are chemically coupled. Here, we develop CoMIAR v1.0 (Coupled Multi- species Inversion with Adaptive Regularization), a hybrid system implemented with CMAQ- Adjoint to address these limitations. CoMIAR combines mass-balance initialization with 4D- Var optimization, extends the adjoint formulation to a fully coupled multi-species control system, and incorporates an online Iterative-Adaptive Regularization (IAR) strategy that updates the species-specific regularization factor at each iteration using the L-curve criterion, thereby avoiding fixed empirical tuning. In observing system simulation experiments over China, IAR suppressed the convergence oscillations observed under fixed-parameter schemes. In the single-species SO2 regularization experiment, IAR reduced emission NRMSE by 50.5 % from the 4D-Var starting point and achieved the lowest final error among the tested schemes. Joint multi-species inversion further exploited sulfate-nitrate-ammonium thermodynamic coupling to separate emission biases that single-species inversions could not resolve. CoMIAR remained robust under spatially heterogeneous prior errors. Together, CoMIAR provides a stable and chemically consistent approach for emission inversion in complex atmospheric systems.

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Zelin Mai, Huizhong Shen, Qiming Liu, Ruixin Zhang, Peng Guo, Han Shen, Tiancheng Luan, Junpeng Xu, Jinling He, Zhiyu Zheng, Yilin Chen, Shunliu Zhao, and Amir Hakami

Status: open (until 21 Sep 2026)

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Zelin Mai, Huizhong Shen, Qiming Liu, Ruixin Zhang, Peng Guo, Han Shen, Tiancheng Luan, Junpeng Xu, Jinling He, Zhiyu Zheng, Yilin Chen, Shunliu Zhao, and Amir Hakami
Zelin Mai, Huizhong Shen, Qiming Liu, Ruixin Zhang, Peng Guo, Han Shen, Tiancheng Luan, Junpeng Xu, Jinling He, Zhiyu Zheng, Yilin Chen, Shunliu Zhao, and Amir Hakami
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Latest update: 28 Jul 2026
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Short summary
Emission inventories underpin air-quality policy yet can diverge from reality. We developed an adjoint-based inversion framework that assimilates multi-source observations to simultaneously optimize multi-species emissions. Observing system simulation experiments over China show that the method recovers emissions with errors below 30 %, while avoiding spurious trade-offs between SO2 and NH3, enabling more reliable emission constraints.
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