Sea Level Rise and Artisanal Port Vulnerability in Panama: Projected Operational Disruption and Economic Losses by 2050 Under SSP5-8.5

Abstract. Artisanal fishing ports in low-lying tropical coasts face disproportionate exposure to sea level rise (SLR), yet port-level operational and economic impact assessments remain scarce for Central America. This study quantifies the projected inoperability and direct economic losses of four state-administered artisanal fishing ports—Aguadulce, El Agallito, El Salado, and Boca Parita—in Parita Bay, Panama, under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 emissions scenarios for the 2050 planning horizon. Freeboard vulnerability was assessed using empirical overflow formulae following Spanish ROM 2.0-11 maritime design standards, incorporating Total Water Level (TWL) projections of up to 2.96 m derived from Panama’s national coastal vulnerability database. Port operability thresholds were combined with significant wave height exceedance probabilities to estimate annual inoperability periods, while economic losses were quantified through a direct impact assessment model integrating compound annual growth rate (CAGR) revenue projections and historically calibrated revenue sensitivity factors. Results show that all four terminals will become inoperable under both SSP scenarios by 2050, with projected annual inoperability reaching approximately 215 days (≈59 % of the year). Direct annual losses are projected to reach USD 29,493 at Aguadulce (15.5 % of 2050 projected revenue) and USD 22,376 at Boca Parita (24.2 % of projected revenue), with El Agallito exhibiting the most severe operational fragility despite lower absolute losses (59.7 % revenue reduction factor). More than 10,000 residents—predominantly dependent on artisanal fishing for income and subsistence—face exposure to permanent coastal inundation. Cumulatively discounted at a 5 % social discount rate, the present value of inaction across the three economically quantified terminals (excluding El Salado due to data limitations) approaches USD 770,000 by 2050, excluding indirect multiplier effects. These findings provide a replicable, data-driven framework for prioritising differentiated coastal adaptation investments at the terminal level and demonstrate that modest-revenue artisanal ports represent critical social infrastructure whose functional loss carries costs that conventional national-scale assessments consistently underestimate.