Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3301
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3301
26 Jun 2026
 | 26 Jun 2026

Contrasting impacts of Asian sulfate aerosols on regional summer extreme precipitation under different climate backgrounds

Feifei Luo, Manoj Joshi, Bjørn H. Samset, Laura J. Wilcox, Camilla W. Stjern, Robert J. Allen, Yan-Ning Kuo, Wei Hua, and Shuanglin Li

Abstract. This study investigates the impact of Asian sulfate aerosols on regional summer extreme precipitation under both pre-industrial and pre-industrial +1 K climate states, using the reduced-complexity climate model Fast Ocean Rapid Troposphere Experiment version 2 (FORTE2) with Systematic Regional Aerosol Perturbations simulations. Results show that increased Asian sulfate aerosols reduce extreme precipitation, characterized by lower frequency and weaker intensity over East and South Asia in both climates, but the suppression is more pronounced over northern India in the +1 K climate. Atmospheric energy budget analysis reveals this is primarily due to enhanced dynamic effects in the warmer climate. When aerosols are added to the pre-industrial climate state, an increased horizontal dry static energy (DSE) gradient partially offsets the aerosol-induced dynamic suppression over northern India. Under the +1 K climate, higher atmospheric static stability weakens the local meridional circulation induced by aerosol forcing, reducing the meridional temperature gradient and thus diminishing the offsetting effect, making the dynamic suppression more dominant. Further analysis indicates that this difference in precipitation responses between the two climates results from the nonlinear effect between the aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions under the +1 K climate, whereas the two effects combine approximately linearly under the pre-industrial climate. This study suggests that continued global warming alone will exacerbate Asian sulfate aerosols’ weakening of precipitation, including extremes, over northern India. This implies that future reductions in aerosol emissions may unmask or amplify extreme precipitation increases in this region.

Competing interests: At least one of the (co-)authors is a member of the editorial board of Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this paper. While Copernicus Publications makes every effort to include appropriate place names, the final responsibility lies with the authors. Views expressed in the text are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher.
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Journal article(s) based on this preprint

27 Oct 2026
Contrasting impacts of Asian sulfate aerosols on regional summer extreme precipitation under different climate backgrounds
Feifei Luo, Manoj Joshi, Bjørn H. Samset, Laura J. Wilcox, Camilla W. Stjern, Robert J. Allen, Yan-Ning Kuo, Wei Hua, and Shuanglin Li
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 15037–15053, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-15037-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-15037-2026, 2026
Short summary
Feifei Luo, Manoj Joshi, Bjørn H. Samset, Laura J. Wilcox, Camilla W. Stjern, Robert J. Allen, Yan-Ning Kuo, Wei Hua, and Shuanglin Li

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2026-3301', Anonymous Referee #1, 23 Jul 2026
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2026-3301', Anonymous Referee #2, 12 Aug 2026

Peer review completion

AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
AR by Feifei Luo on behalf of the Authors (04 Sep 2026)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (21 Sep 2026) by N'Datchoh Evelyne Touré
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (26 Sep 2026)
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (07 Oct 2026)
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (15 Oct 2026) by N'Datchoh Evelyne Touré
AR by Feifei Luo on behalf of the Authors (15 Oct 2026)  Author's response   Manuscript 

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2026-3301', Anonymous Referee #1, 23 Jul 2026
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2026-3301', Anonymous Referee #2, 12 Aug 2026

Peer review completion

AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
AR by Feifei Luo on behalf of the Authors (04 Sep 2026)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (21 Sep 2026) by N'Datchoh Evelyne Touré
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (26 Sep 2026)
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (07 Oct 2026)
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (15 Oct 2026) by N'Datchoh Evelyne Touré
AR by Feifei Luo on behalf of the Authors (15 Oct 2026)  Author's response   Manuscript 

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

27 Oct 2026
Contrasting impacts of Asian sulfate aerosols on regional summer extreme precipitation under different climate backgrounds
Feifei Luo, Manoj Joshi, Bjørn H. Samset, Laura J. Wilcox, Camilla W. Stjern, Robert J. Allen, Yan-Ning Kuo, Wei Hua, and Shuanglin Li
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 15037–15053, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-15037-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-15037-2026, 2026
Short summary
Feifei Luo, Manoj Joshi, Bjørn H. Samset, Laura J. Wilcox, Camilla W. Stjern, Robert J. Allen, Yan-Ning Kuo, Wei Hua, and Shuanglin Li
Feifei Luo, Manoj Joshi, Bjørn H. Samset, Laura J. Wilcox, Camilla W. Stjern, Robert J. Allen, Yan-Ning Kuo, Wei Hua, and Shuanglin Li

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The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.

Short summary
This study examines if this impact changes in a warmer world. Using a climate model, we compare identical Asian emissions under cooler and 1 K warmer climates. Aerosols reduce extreme rainfall in both, but more strongly over northern India in the warmer climate. A warmer, stabler atmosphere weakens circulation that partly offsets aerosol drying in cooler conditions. Continued warming may strengthen this drying over parts of Asia, while future pollution cuts could amplify heavy rainfall.
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