| 12 Jun 2026
Past and future European atmospheric extreme events under climate change – the ClimXtreme program's structure and results
Abstract. The meteorological extreme events heatwaves, droughts, heavy precipitation, floods and wind storms affect socio-economic systems and generate considerable attention. The role of anthropogenic climate change in the generation, frequency, and severity of observed and future events triggers mitigation and adaptation questions. Weather-related extremes are rare and embedded into atmospheric dynamics. This sets the frame for a dynamical-statistical analysis coupled to detailed impact or risk studies of rare events. This approach is taken by the German Federal Ministry BMBFTR funded project ClimXtreme-1 with 35 sub-projects. Here we compile the contributions of 21 articles of the inter-journal NHESS/ASCMO/WCD special issue. We connect them to 33 peer reviewed ClimXtreme-1 writings in other journals. For archetypic events over continental areas in mid Europe the individual research results are reported. These involve the use of existing and newly developed indices, analyses of the atmospheric dynamics and process-based chains using global and regional climate models results and statistical detection and attribution studies, with emphasis on establishing a causal relationship between extreme events and anthropogenic climate change. Two overarching conclusions emerge from the joint appraisal of the ClimXtreme-1 publications. Firstly, conclusions on causality show that the attribution analyses of observed events demonstrate the necessary contribution of past anthropogenic climate change to the event while sufficient contributions to future extremes need to be established. Secondly, findings from the dynamic process studies highlight the need to expand the current attribution approaches (statistical vs. storyline) to include the mediator-moderator framework.
Competing interests: At least one of the (co-)authors is a member of the editorial board of Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences.
Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this paper. While Copernicus Publications makes every effort to include appropriate place names, the final responsibility lies with the authors. Views expressed in the text are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher.
