Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-248
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-248
03 Mar 2026
 | 03 Mar 2026

Parameterizing tidal-water intrusions in long-term Antarctic ice-sheet projections

Antonio Juarez-Martinez, Alexander Robinson, Jan Swierczek-Jereczek, Javier Blasco, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, and Marisa Montoya

Abstract. The Antarctic Ice Sheet is expected to be the dominant contributor to sea-level rise in the coming centuries. However, this contribution is deeply uncertain due to the lack of understanding of some fundamental processes influencing ice-sheet dynamics. A key question is the extent to which submarine melting takes place at the transition between grounded and floating ice. Traditionally, in continental-scale ice-sheet modelling, this area has been treated as an abrupt transition or grounding line with suppressed or strongly limited submarine melting upstream. However, several lines of evidence challenge this view. In many places, changes in ocean tides lead to back and forth migrations of the grounding line over a broad grounding zone and can cause intrusion of warm ocean waters several kilometres upstream of the grounding line, allowing for submarine melting there. Here, we propose a simple parameterization to represent the effect of tidally-controlled migrations of the grounding line and tidal-water intrusion in submarine melting in continental-scale ice-sheet models. We calibrate the magnitude of the parameter controlling the extent of oceanic water intrusions against the observational evidence as inferred from differential interferometry synthetic aperture radar. We use a three-dimensional ice-sheet model to investigate the impact of this parameterization on Antarctic ice-sheet projections under a high-emission climate scenario extending to the year 3000. Our results show that increasing the extent of tidal intrusion, reinforced by dynamic feedbacks, leads to stronger and more widespread grounding-zone retreat under warming scenarios, and consequently ice-stream acceleration, ice-shelf thinning and debuttressing. This implies larger sea-level contributions compared to the usual treatment of melt at the grounding line and should be accounted for in future projections.

Competing interests: At least one of the (co-)authors is a member of the editorial board of The Cryosphere.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this paper. While Copernicus Publications makes every effort to include appropriate place names, the final responsibility lies with the authors. Views expressed in the text are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher.
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Journal article(s) based on this preprint

21 Sep 2026
Parameterizing tidal-water intrusions in long-term Antarctic ice-sheet projections
Antonio Juarez-Martinez, Alexander Robinson, Jan Swierczek-Jereczek, Javier Blasco, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, and Marisa Montoya
The Cryosphere, 20, 5345–5363, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-5345-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-5345-2026, 2026
Short summary
Antonio Juarez-Martinez, Alexander Robinson, Jan Swierczek-Jereczek, Javier Blasco, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, and Marisa Montoya

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2026-248', Anonymous Referee #1, 29 Mar 2026
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Antonio Juarez-Martinez, 19 Jun 2026
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2026-248', Anonymous Referee #2, 13 May 2026
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Antonio Juarez-Martinez, 19 Jun 2026
  • RC3: 'Comment on egusphere-2026-248', Anonymous Referee #3, 11 Jun 2026
    • AC3: 'Reply on RC3', Antonio Juarez-Martinez, 19 Jun 2026

Peer review completion

AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
ED: Submit a revised manuscript (30 Jun 2026) by Gong Cheng
AR by Antonio Juarez-Martinez on behalf of the Authors (01 Jul 2026)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (17 Jul 2026) by Gong Cheng
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (26 Aug 2026)
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (31 Aug 2026) by Gong Cheng
AR by Antonio Juarez-Martinez on behalf of the Authors (08 Sep 2026)  Author's response   Manuscript 

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2026-248', Anonymous Referee #1, 29 Mar 2026
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Antonio Juarez-Martinez, 19 Jun 2026
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2026-248', Anonymous Referee #2, 13 May 2026
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Antonio Juarez-Martinez, 19 Jun 2026
  • RC3: 'Comment on egusphere-2026-248', Anonymous Referee #3, 11 Jun 2026
    • AC3: 'Reply on RC3', Antonio Juarez-Martinez, 19 Jun 2026

Peer review completion

AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
ED: Submit a revised manuscript (30 Jun 2026) by Gong Cheng
AR by Antonio Juarez-Martinez on behalf of the Authors (01 Jul 2026)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (17 Jul 2026) by Gong Cheng
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (26 Aug 2026)
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (31 Aug 2026) by Gong Cheng
AR by Antonio Juarez-Martinez on behalf of the Authors (08 Sep 2026)  Author's response   Manuscript 

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

21 Sep 2026
Parameterizing tidal-water intrusions in long-term Antarctic ice-sheet projections
Antonio Juarez-Martinez, Alexander Robinson, Jan Swierczek-Jereczek, Javier Blasco, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, and Marisa Montoya
The Cryosphere, 20, 5345–5363, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-5345-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-5345-2026, 2026
Short summary
Antonio Juarez-Martinez, Alexander Robinson, Jan Swierczek-Jereczek, Javier Blasco, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, and Marisa Montoya
Antonio Juarez-Martinez, Alexander Robinson, Jan Swierczek-Jereczek, Javier Blasco, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, and Marisa Montoya

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Short summary
Tidal-water intrusions can cause warm ocean water to extend beneath grounded Antarctic ice, increasing submarine melting beyond the grounding line. Here, a new parameterization representing this effect is introduced and tested in the Yelmo ice-sheet model, revealing that tides could amplify ice loss and sea-level rise. This new parameterization shows good agreement with inferred grounding zones.
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