IMAGE-materials 3.5.1.0: Dynamic material flow modelling in the IMAGE Integrated Assessment Model

Abstract. We present the IMAGE-materials model, a stock-driven dynamic material flow analysis model, part of the IMAGE integrated assessment model (IAM) framework. y combining modelling principles from the IAM and Industrial Ecology (IE) communities, the model quantifies material inflows, stocks, and outflows affected by climate and resource policy scenarios.

IMAGE-materials is a recursive yearly simulation model that projects global material demand until 2100 for 26 world regions on a sectoral level for a wide variety of bulk and critical materials. The model includes buildings, vehicles, electricity, rail & road infrastructure, and a residual sector capturing the remaining demand, including different types and modes (e.g., housing types and transport modes). It is written using a modular, object-oriented Python architecture, enabling the easy addition of new sectors and data. Key assumptions include product lifetimes, material intensities, and technology mixes.

The model is driven by service demand scenarios produced by the IMAGE framework, based on socio-economic and climate policy assumptions. IMAGE-materials can flexibly simulate the adoption of numerous circular economy measures, such as service demand reductions, lifetime extension, lightweighting, and recycling. Therefore, IMAGE-materials enables scientists and policymakers to explore mitigation pathways with a detailed additional dimension of material flows. It can thus assess the synergies and trade-offs between climate and circularity policies by explicitly accounting for their material implications. As such, IMAGE-materials integrates the fields of IAMs and IE, building on the strengths of each.