| 01 Jun 2026
Contribution of the solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere-atmosphere coupling to rapid intensification of tropical cyclones and transition of Mediterranean subtropical cyclones to tropical-like cyclones
Abstract. We investigate rapid intensification of tropical cyclones and transition of Mediterranean subtropical cyclones to tropical-like cyclones in the context of solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere-atmosphere coupling. Using the superposed epoch analysis of time series of solar wind variables, it is observed that rapid intensification of tropical cyclones and transition of Mediterranean subtropical cyclones to tropical-like cyclones tend to occur following arrivals of high-speed solar wind streams from coronal holes or impacts of interplanetary coronal mass ejections. Aurorally generated atmospheric gravity waves can influence the development of weather. While these gravity waves reach the troposphere with attenuated amplitudes, they can contribute to the release of conditional symmetric instability leading to latent heat release and intensification of extratropical and tropical cyclones. We use the meteorological re-analysis to evaluate slantwise convective available potential energy to assess likelihood of conditional symmetric instability that can be released by over-reflecting aurorally generated gravity waves leading to slantwise convection and intensification of storms.
Main comment:
The analysis and conclusions in Fig. 2 is methodologically circular.
"Fig. 2 shows SPE analysis of green corona intensity (top panels) and solar wind variables (middle panels) keyed to arrivals of HSS/CIRs that were followed within 3 days by hurricane RI ≥ 30 kt/24h" (L117-119).
As a result, the figure cannot demonstrate that “RI of hurricanes often occur following arrivals of HSSs from coronal holes or impact of ICMEs” (L144-145), it only reflects the pre‑selection criterion. To support the stated conclusion, the analysis must for example include all HSS/CIR arrivals (with and without RI) and all RI events (with and without preceding solar‑wind activity.
The SPE analysis in Fig. 14a suffers from the same circular‑selection problem noted earlier. By compositing only those HSS/CIR arrivals that were already known to be associated with medicanes, the analysis cannot demonstrate that “most medicanes developed following HSS/CIR arrivals.” This conclusion is built into the event selection itself. L368-370
General comments:
- I would recommend the authors to provide some general statistics of the 363 hurricane events. How many events of the list exceed the maximum rapid intensification (RI > 30 kt/24h)?. How many occurred within n days from the ICME, HSS arrival?
- Provide information of number of medicine events.
- The Richardson and Cane (2010) catalog provide a consistent identification of ICME. What about the HSS/CIR? What is the catalog or criteria used to identify such structure in the solar wind data?
- Superposed epoch analysis of solar wind conditions should not only indicate the mean values. It also needs a measure of variability (e.g., quartiles, standard deviation). Without showing the spread, it is impossible to assess the statistical significance or robustness of the composited time serie.
- Provide information about the extended list of tropical cyclones with convective bursts.