Present and future responses of near-surface wind speed to different land-use and land-cover types in China

Abstract. Near-surface wind speed (NSWS) is highly sensitive to land-use and land-cover change (LULCC). However, previous studies have mainly focused on overall LULCC effects, leaving the attribution of wind variations to individual land transitions and management poorly constrained. Here, we utilize simulations from the latest land-use model intercomparison project (LUMIP) in CMIP6 to disentangle and quantify the responses of NSWS to different LULCC types over China from 1970 to 2014. We find that the primary-to-grazing transition is the dominant factor to LULCC-Induced NSWS variability, followed by fertilizer use, with urbanization contributes the least among the examined types. Future projections further suggest that land-use pathways can substantially perturb wind patterns, with low-emission pathways under minimally regulated land use producing more pronounced alterations than high-emission pathways under sustainable land use. These results highlighting the importance of resolving LULCC in attributing and projecting NSWS changes, with implications for climate modeling, wind-energy assessment, and land-use policy.