| 04 Jun 2026
Multi-Temporal Influences of Large-Scale Atmospheric Patterns On Antarctic Coastal Polynyas
Abstract. During the austral ice advance season, sea ice expands across the Southern Ocean, significantly reducing gas, heat, and moisture transfer between the atmosphere and ocean. Situated along the Antarctica coastline are areas of open water, minimal sea ice concentration, or relatively thin ice – called coastal polynyas. Coastal polynyas continuously reconnect the atmosphere and ocean. Antarctic coastal polynyas’ greatest geographic influence occurs through their contribution to deep water formation and the global Thermohaline Circulation. Coastal polynya impacts are partially controlled by their size. Larger polynyas allow greater rates of sea ice production, bottom water formation, and total biological productivity. This study examines the role that large-scale atmospheric patterns play in Antarctic coastal polynya size variability. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Amundsen Sea Low (ASL) together significantly influence the sizes of 20 of the 25 Antarctic coastal polynyas in this study. The SAM exerts its strongest influence in East Antarctica, where a +SAM stunts coastal polynya growth. ENSO, a tropical phenomenon with significant West Antarctica teleconnections, promotes polynya growth during La Niña. The ASL, an exclusively West Antarctica phenomenon, enhances polynya growth in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas as it intensifies and as it migrates northeast. In contrast, an eastward migration of the ASL suppresses polynya expansion in the Weddell Sea. Variability in the SAM and in the ASL’s intensity and latitudinal location impact monthly and seasonal polynya size variability. Variability in ENSO and in the ASL’s intensity and longitudinal location impact annual, seasonal, and monthly polynya size variability, respectively.
Review of “Multi-Temporal Influences of Large-Scale Atmospheric Patterns On Antarctic Coastal Polynyas” by Ward & Raphael
In this manuscript the authors correlate the size of multiple Antarctic coastal polynyas with indices of the Southern Annular Mode, El Niño-Southern Oscillation, and the Amundsen Sea Low. The main results of the study are multiple correlations between these modes of variability and the polynya size. Because the author’s present such a large number of correlations, it is difficult to determine the key messages that should be taken from this study.
While I don’t believe that the results of the study constitute a particularly large scientific impact, I think they are publishable provided a number of major issues are resolved. The first of the major issues I have already mentioned: a lack of clear, key results that should be taken from the study. Second, I believe the presentation of the results, particularly in the figures, requires some improvement, not least to make them more engaging and presentable. These and other major issues are discussed in more detail below.
The lack of great significance in the study’s results, combined with the major issues detailed below, meant I was unsure whether or not to recommend “rejected” or “reconsidered after major revisions”. I have opted for the latter in my formal recommendation.
Major
Minor
L19-22. “Variability in…” x 2. The final two sentences of the abstract are vague. What are the “impacts” that are referred to in these sentences?
L38. “Static, or slow-moving, features form the windward boundary of these latent heat-induced polynyas”. This is repetition of details in L32.
L44. “surface waters become dense enough to sink to the continental shelf”. The waters are already on the continental shelf. Is the meaning “towards the ocean floor”?
L45. I don’t think that “spill into Antarctic Bottom Water” is an accurate description of the process. The waters can transform into AABW as they cascade down the continental slope.
L47. “gives Antarctic coastal polynyas global influence”. What is this influence? Can this be written more precisely?
L74. “They found that trends in RISP area and timing of the RISP’s annual occurrence are influenced by trends in ENSO and the SAM”. What is this influence that is being described?
L130. “While 70 polynyas…” I found this sentence difficult to follow. Perhaps it can be split into two to make it clearer.
L137-141. I found this paragraph very difficult to follow throughout. What does “aggregated” mean precisely? What are the “initial annual means”? Does “standardized deviations” mean “standard deviations” or something else? Can the meaning of the “over-allocation” of correlation also be expanded on please?
Figure 2. (a) Polynyas 1,2 and 25 are all in the Ross Sea, but appear at different ends of the later bar charts. Perhaps there is a more natural location to start counting the polynyas from, so they are more neatly separated. Somewhere around Haakon VII Sea looks most obvious. (b) The sea ice drift vectors in panel b use odd units. How about m/s?
L148. There is a table immediately after Figure 2, but this is neither a formal, captioned table nor is it properly incorporated into the text.
L232. “With the positive long term trend previously presented in this paper (Fig. 3)…” As far as I can tell, Fig 3 doesn’t show the sign of the trend.
L244. Please comment on the suitability of not using any lags between modes and sea ice response.
L253. This equation is not part of any sentence, but should flow grammatically. What does the “~” symbol represent precisely?
L256. “As stated above…” This sentence is full of repetition, and I suggest cutting it down substantially.
L272. “Thus, polynyas that grow with easterly winds…” The conclusion in this sentence relies on wind-polynya interactions being a symmetric process. This may be true, roughly speaking, but you should state here that you are working under this assumption.
L396. It’s not clear how the polynyas in the Amundsen/Bellingshausen sectors are related to the Ross Gyre. In fact, I don’t think they are related in the way that the text suggests: the Ross Gyre is further to west and is in the deep ocean. Therefore, I suggest deleting this sentence.
L483. This equation is not part of any sentence. It should flow within the paragraph. I also disagree with the equation (see major comment above), so I think it can be removed.
L484. This paragraph discusses more ACP-polynya correlations, but we are now in the RCP section. These should be moved to the ACP section.
L629. The Amundsen and Bellingshausen polynyas do not contribute to AABW formation at all, so this sentence needs editing.
Other
Abstract & elsewhere. In the phrase “polynyas’ greatest geographic influence”, the word “geographic” is a bit vague and I think is misplaced. Perhaps “oceanographic” is more accurate.
L15. While the meaning of syntax like “+SAM” can be inferred, I think it should be explicitly stated.
L16,17. Change “West Antarctica” to “West Antarctic”.
L33, 269. “ice tongue” --> “ice shelf”
L33. “iceberg” --> “grounded iceberg”
L69. “It is important to note…” This sentence feels overly tangential, and I suggest cutting it.
L80. “upward transport of oceanic heat, which is associated with the basal sea ice melt”. How are they associated? Can the text be made more precise?
L345 + other locations. “significant positive relationship”. Does “relationship” here mean “correlation”? There were other instances where “relationship” is used and it is not clear if “correlation” is the intended meaning. I suggest finding and changing of all these to make the meaning clear.
L395. “negative westerly” --> “easterly”
L570, 576. “circumAntarctic” --> “circum-Antarctic”