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https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-177
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-177
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
21 Jan 2026
| 21 Jan 2026
Status: this preprint is open for discussion.
Criticality and critical agency in societal tipping processes towards sustainability
Abstract. Rapid societal transformations are necessary to mitigate risky anthropogenic climate change and maintain human systems within Earth's planetary boundaries. Societal tipping processes have gained attention as mechanisms towards sustainability, yet generalisable solutions for intentionally transforming societal systems remain unclear. Here, we emphasise the significance of uncovering the systemic societal conditions enabling tipping from a complex adaptive systems perspective. Building upon research on societal tipping, transitions, and transformations, we develop the concepts of criticality – the likelihood of societal tipping – and critical agency – the human capacity to shape conditions that increase or reduce systemic criticality. We identify the transformation stages of criticality as the key analytical focus, and explore the phases of enacting critical agency within the societal tipping process. Criticality can serve as a crucial compass for policymakers, entrepreneurs, and activists, and other change-makers illuminating how critical agency can be used to instigate desired 'positive' societal tipping.
How to cite. Smith, E. K., Folke, C., Kitzmann, N., Milkoreit, M., Olsson, P., Winkelmann, R., Crépin, A.-S., Eder, C., Harring, N., Heitzig, J., Katsanidou, A., Lenton, T. M., Mauelshagen, F., Minor, K., Otto, I. M., Rezai, A., Scheffran, J., Stadelmann-Steffen, I., van der Ploeg, R., Wunderling, N., and Donges, J. F.: Criticality and critical agency in societal tipping processes towards sustainability, EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-177, 2026.
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Department of Humanities, Social and Political Sciences, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland
Carl Folke
Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Stockholm, Sweden
Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
Anthropocene Laboratory, The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Stockholm, Sweden
Niklas Kitzmann
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Institute for Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
Manjana Milkoreit
Department of Sociology and Human Geography, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
Per Olsson
Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
Ricarda Winkelmann
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Institute for Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
Integrative Earth System Science, Max Planck Institute of Geoanthropology, Jena, Germany
Anne-Sophie Crépin
Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Stockholm, Sweden
Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
Christina Eder
GESIS Leibniz Institute for the Social Sciences, Member of the Leibniz Association, Cologne, Germany
Niklas Harring
Department of Political Science, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
Jobst Heitzig
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Alexia Katsanidou
GESIS Leibniz Institute for the Social Sciences, Member of the Leibniz Association, Cologne, Germany
Institute of Sociology and Social Psychology, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany
Timothy M. Lenton
Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom
Franz Mauelshagen
Department of History, Bielefeld University, Bielefeld, Germany
Kelton Minor
Data Science Institute, Columbia University, New York, United States of America
Ilona M. Otto
Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz, Graz, Austria
Armon Rezai
Institute for the Political Economy of Public Policy, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Vienna, Austria
Jürgen Scheffran
Institute of Geography, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
Isabelle Stadelmann-Steffen
Institute of Political Science and Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Rick van der Ploeg
Department of Economics, Oxford University, Oxford, UK
University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Nico Wunderling
Center for Critical Computational Studies (C3S), Goethe University, Frankfurt, Germany
Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Stockholm, Sweden
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Short summary
Achieving climate and sustainability goals requires rapid, large-scale change. We introduce criticality – the likelihood a system is near a social tipping point – and critical agency – the capacity to shape those conditions. Our framework shows how coalitions and policies can trigger desired shifts and avoid harmful ones, linking complex systems theory with evidence to guide policymakers and practitioners.
Achieving climate and sustainability goals requires rapid, large-scale change. We introduce...