Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1730
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1730
04 May 2026
 | 04 May 2026
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).

Impacts of aerosols on the tornado potential: A case study in Yangtze River Delta, China

Rumo Wang, Tianyi Fan, Zhanqing Li, and Jianping Guo

Abstract. Extensive observational and modeling studies have demonstrated that aerosols can modify extreme rainfall and convective storms. Their impacts on the genesis and development of tornadoes remain largely unexplored. By incorporating data assimilation into WRF-Chem simulations, we successfully simulate the whole life cycle of a supercell tornado and demonstrate the roles of anthropogenic aerosols. It is found that aerosols can enhance tornado potential, quantified here by the Significant Tornado Parameter, and affect storm motion, precipitation evolution, and cold-pool structure chiefly through two mechanisms. First, aerosols enhance condensational heating within the 0.3–1 km layer. Second, aerosols reduce near-surface evaporative cooling within the low-level updraft core by shifting it away from regions of strong rain evaporation. Together, these thermodynamic effects increase heating and thermal buoyancy, accelerating the low-level updraft. The aerosol-caused strengthening of the updraft enhances low-level convergence and deepens storm-relative inflow, leading to increased ingestion of streamwise vorticity in the 0–1 km layer, which dominates the enhancement of the tornado potential. This study gains new insights into the thermodynamic and dynamical pathways through which aerosols can influence extreme weather.

Competing interests: One of the authors, Zhanqing Li, is a member of the editorial board of Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. The authors declare that they have no other competing interests.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this paper. While Copernicus Publications makes every effort to include appropriate place names, the final responsibility lies with the authors. Views expressed in the text are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher.
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Rumo Wang, Tianyi Fan, Zhanqing Li, and Jianping Guo

Status: open (until 15 Jun 2026)

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Rumo Wang, Tianyi Fan, Zhanqing Li, and Jianping Guo
Rumo Wang, Tianyi Fan, Zhanqing Li, and Jianping Guo
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Short summary
This study investigated whether aerosols from anthropogenic emissions can make storm environment more favorable for producing tornados. We numerically modeled a real storm in the populated eastern China and found that aerosols can warm the low-level air and strengthen the updraft, allowing the storm to more effectively ingest environmental vorticity, and thus favoring the production of tornados. This suggests that air pollution may increase severe weather risk in densely populated regions.
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