Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1638
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1638
11 May 2026
 | 11 May 2026
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).

The North American CORDEX-CMIP6 WRF evaluation run: comparing historical simulations from 25 km to convection-permitting scales

Jacob Stuivenvolt-Allen, Trude Eidhammer, Rachel McCrary, Melissa Bukovsky, Stefan Rahimi, Hsin-I. Chang, and Seth McGinnis

Abstract. Earth system models (ESMs) provide essential insight into large-scale climate variability and change but often lack the spatial resolution required to represent fine-scale processes critical for regional impacts and adaptation planning. To help address this gap, we present an updated high-resolution regional climate simulation for North America (NA) as part of the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). We evaluate a new reanalysis forced NA-CORDEX simulation at 12 km resolution against observational datasets, an earlier NA-CORDEX CMIP5 simulation (25 km), and the convection-permitting CONUS-404 simulation (4 km). Through these comparisons, we assess how horizontal resolution and regional model configuration influence historical biases and extremes, with a particular focus on precipitation processes given that convection is parameterized at 12 km. Relative to previous NA-CORDEX-CMIP5 simulations, the new CMIP6-based evaluation run reduces mean biases in temperature and precipitation, improves the magnitude and timing of the diurnal precipitation cycle across North America, and substantially improves the representation of tropical cyclone structure and intensity. Notably, extreme precipitation rates are well captured at 12 km when compared to the convection-permitting simulations. While long-term convection-permitting climate simulations remain a key objective for regional modeling, the current generation of CORDEX simulations provides a practical balance between computational efficiency and physical realism for continental-scale climate assessment.

Competing interests: Jacob Stuivenvolt-Allen, Rachel McCrary, Seth McGinnis, Stefan Rahimi, and Melissa Bukovsky collaborate and work with Dr. Paul Ullrich, an editor of GMD. Other than that, we have not competing interests in the review process.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this paper. While Copernicus Publications makes every effort to include appropriate place names, the final responsibility lies with the authors. Views expressed in the text are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher.
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Jacob Stuivenvolt-Allen, Trude Eidhammer, Rachel McCrary, Melissa Bukovsky, Stefan Rahimi, Hsin-I. Chang, and Seth McGinnis

Status: open (until 06 Jul 2026)

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Jacob Stuivenvolt-Allen, Trude Eidhammer, Rachel McCrary, Melissa Bukovsky, Stefan Rahimi, Hsin-I. Chang, and Seth McGinnis
Jacob Stuivenvolt-Allen, Trude Eidhammer, Rachel McCrary, Melissa Bukovsky, Stefan Rahimi, Hsin-I. Chang, and Seth McGinnis
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Latest update: 11 May 2026
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Short summary
Global climate models offer crucial insight into climate change but lack resolution to capture regional processes. We present a new 12 km regional climate simulation for North America under CORDEX. Compared to an earlier regional simulation, our run shows reduced temperature and precipitation biases, improved rainfall timing, and better tropical cyclone representation. This approach balances accuracy and efficiency for regional climate assessment.
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