Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Effects of model resolution on predicting atmospheric ducting conditions with Harmonie-AROME
Karoliina Hämäläinen,Laura Rautiainen,Jani Tyynelä,and Lauri Laakso
Abstract. To avoid hazardous situations, it is important to be able to forecast the condition leading to anomalous propagation of electromagnetic signal. In this study, the operational weather forecasting model Harmonie-AROME used by the Finnish meteorological institute was utilized to assess the effects of model resolution on predicting atmospheric ducting conditions. Four separate model configurations were tested altering the vertical and horizontal resolution. The testing period (from 19th of June to 12th of July, 2022) included several occasions when anomalous propagation had been detected at Northern Baltic sea by the Utö coastal surveillance radar. The comparison against the observations show potential of predicting ducting conditions with numerical weather prediction model. At the same time the results reveal the limitations of the model in producing realistic vertical profiles of temperature and humidity especially near surface.
Received: 02 Apr 2026 – Discussion started: 22 May 2026
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This study investigated how well a weather model can predict anomalous signal propagation conditions over the sea. We tested different model settings and compared the results with mast observations from the summer of 2022. The model results are promising in identifying these conditions, especially at higher altitudes. Yet, model’s had difficulties near the surface due to simplified land and sea description.
This study investigated how well a weather model can predict anomalous signal propagation...
