Impact of large-scale atmospheric winter circulation on sea ice motion in the Arctic in 2000–2025

Abstract. This study examines the relationship between atmospheric large-scale circulation indices, twelve finer-scale circulation types, and ice drift speed at three fixed transects. The aim is to analyse the impact of atmospheric pressure patterns on ice drift. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), Pacific-North American Pattern (PNA), and Arctic Dipole Anomaly (DA) explain about 10 % of the drift speed variations in the Beaufort Gyre (BG), Transpolar Drift Stream (TDS) and Fram Strait (FR). Self-organizing maps (SOM) analysis further reveals distinct circulation types even when large-scale circulation indices appear similar, which explains the low explanatory power of the large scale circulation indices alone. However, mean sea level pressure (MSLP) variability at optimal locations accounts for approximately 40 to 60 % of the observed drift speed variations, with sea ice thickness and thickness anomalies showing no significant improvement in explanatory power. Sea ice thickness exhibits a strong seasonal cycle and is predominantly influenced by the time of year, suggesting that its impact on drift speed may manifest over climatic timescales.