Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1522
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1522
31 Mar 2026
 | 31 Mar 2026

Global characterisation of the vertical temperature anomaly structure of heat extremes over land in ERA5

Belinda Hotz, Heini Wernli, Matthias Röthlisberger, and Robin Noyelle

Abstract. The formation of surface heat extremes is usually described in terms of surface processes and upper-level dynamics. However, their full vertical temperature profile contains additional essential information about the involved processes. So far, it is an open question whether heat extremes are associated with characteristic vertical temperature anomaly profiles and, if they exist, how they vary across the globe. In this study, we globally and systematically classify vertical temperature anomaly profiles during annual maximum 2-m temperature events (TXx) using a k-means clustering approach. After normalising and scaling the anomaly profiles, we find three clusters whose global distribution closely follows the polar, mid-latitude, and tropical climate zones. The three clusters capture key structural differences of heat extremes. Within the tropical cluster, positive temperature anomalies during TXx events are vertically confined to the (often deep) boundary layer and intensify progressively in the days leading up to the event, while the upper troposphere is not deviating from its climatological mean. The mid-latitude cluster also exhibits bottom-heavy temperature anomalies, which, however, extend throughout the full troposphere, showing a strong vertical coupling during TXx events. In the polar cluster, the events are characterised by deep tropospheric warm anomalies, accompanied by the erosion of the near-surface inversion layer, resulting in a shallow layer of particularly strong temperature anomalies near the ground. These results show that while multiple physical mechanisms can generate a heat extreme, at first order, the normalised and scaled temperature anomaly profiles during heat extremes are very similar to each other within a given climate zone. Deviations from the cluster median during individual TXx events mainly come from the variability between TXx events rather than the variability between the median profiles of different grid points. Finally, the normalised and scaled temperature anomaly profiles of the most extreme TXx events are particularly well represented by the grid point's median profile for all TXx events, suggesting a typical dynamics of the most extreme heat events.

Competing interests: At least one of the (co-)authors is a member of the editorial board of Weather and Climate Dynamics.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this paper. While Copernicus Publications makes every effort to include appropriate place names, the final responsibility lies with the authors. Views expressed in the text are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher.
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Journal article(s) based on this preprint

29 Sep 2026
Global characterisation of the vertical temperature anomaly structure of heat extremes over land in ERA5
Belinda Hotz, Heini Wernli, Matthias Röthlisberger, and Robin Noyelle
Weather Clim. Dynam., 7, 1875–1897, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1875-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1875-2026, 2026
Short summary
Belinda Hotz, Heini Wernli, Matthias Röthlisberger, and Robin Noyelle

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • AC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2026-1522', Belinda Hotz, 27 Apr 2026
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2026-1522', Anonymous Referee #1, 04 May 2026
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2026-1522', Aaron Donohoe, 11 Jun 2026
  • AC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2026-1522', Belinda Hotz, 08 Jul 2026

Peer review completion

AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
AR by Belinda Hotz on behalf of the Authors (24 Jul 2026)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (24 Jul 2026) by David Battisti
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (24 Jul 2026)
RR by Aaron Donohoe (27 Aug 2026)
ED: Publish as is (30 Aug 2026) by David Battisti
AR by Belinda Hotz on behalf of the Authors (16 Sep 2026)  Manuscript 

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • AC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2026-1522', Belinda Hotz, 27 Apr 2026
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2026-1522', Anonymous Referee #1, 04 May 2026
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2026-1522', Aaron Donohoe, 11 Jun 2026
  • AC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2026-1522', Belinda Hotz, 08 Jul 2026

Peer review completion

AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
AR by Belinda Hotz on behalf of the Authors (24 Jul 2026)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (24 Jul 2026) by David Battisti
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (24 Jul 2026)
RR by Aaron Donohoe (27 Aug 2026)
ED: Publish as is (30 Aug 2026) by David Battisti
AR by Belinda Hotz on behalf of the Authors (16 Sep 2026)  Manuscript 

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

29 Sep 2026
Global characterisation of the vertical temperature anomaly structure of heat extremes over land in ERA5
Belinda Hotz, Heini Wernli, Matthias Röthlisberger, and Robin Noyelle
Weather Clim. Dynam., 7, 1875–1897, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1875-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1875-2026, 2026
Short summary
Belinda Hotz, Heini Wernli, Matthias Röthlisberger, and Robin Noyelle
Belinda Hotz, Heini Wernli, Matthias Röthlisberger, and Robin Noyelle

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Short summary
We systematically investigate vertical temperature anomaly profiles during heat extremes on a global scale. Three distinct clusters emerge, aligning closely with the polar, mid-latitude, and tropical climate zones and capturing the key characteristics of the vertical profiles. While mid-latitude and polar profiles feature anomalies throughout the troposphere, with the highest temperature anomalies in the boundary layer, tropical temperature anomalies are confined to the boundary layer.
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