Forecasting the Flame: Simulating Future Wildfire Regimes in the Northeast Mediterranean

Abstract. Despite a global decline in total burned area, high-impact wildfire events continue to pose growing threats to ecosystems and human communities. As climate change amplifies hydroclimatic extremes, cycles of precipitation-driven fuel build-up followed by persistent drought are increasing the likelihood of severe wildfires. Moving beyond estimates of total burned area, this study aims to answer "where, and how often, will future landscapes burn?" by quantifying wildfire hazard through fire probability and fire return intervals for the northern segment of the Eastern Mediterranean Basin (34–46° N, 24–50° E), a region where such extremes are expected to fundamentally alter fire regimes. Potential changes in fire activity were investigated for the period 1961–2100 using the process-based dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS coupled with SIMFIRE–BLAZE wildfire modules. Terrestrial vegetation was represented using regionally parameterized Plant Functional Types, and simulations were forced with ERA5-Land reanalysis for the historical period (1961–2025) and an ensemble of five CMIP6 climate projections under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5) for exploratory future analysis (2015–2100). Benchmarking against MODIS MCD64A1 observations revealed that while the model successfully reproduced domain-scale burned area magnitudes and interannual variability, weak spatial agreement highlighted the strong influence of localized anthropogenic ignition and suppression processes not represented in the natural-potential experimental design. Future projections indicated that changes in fire probability and return intervals are unlikely to be spatially uniform. Instead, simulation results highlight a fundamental reorganization of fire regimes driven by the interplay between hydroclimatic change, vegetation dynamics, and landscape structure. By combining temporally explicit reanalysis data with ensemble climate projections, this study distinguishes between the role of observed hydroclimatic extremes in shaping historical fire activity and the importance of long-term climate trajectories in constraining future risk. The findings suggest that climate change may not simply increase overall wildfire activity, but rather systematically redistribute fire risk across the region, with urgent implications for anticipating emerging hotspots and adapting fire management strategies.