Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1265
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1265
12 Mar 2026
 | 12 Mar 2026

Runoff thresholds as state-dependent connectivity transitions: A global synthesis across diverse catchments

Zhen Cui and Fuqiang Tian

Abstract. Runoff threshold behavior is widely reported in event-based hydrological studies, but its interpretation and cross-catchment comparability remain unresolved due to variations in threshold metrics and values across climates, landscape structures, and observational focuses. This study synthesizes reported storm-runoff thresholds from experimental catchments worldwide by compiling the indicators used to detect nonlinearity, the dominant runoff generation mechanisms, their observed transition pathways under increasing wetness, and recurrent soil–geology fingerprints. Across mechanisms and climates, thresholds are identified using diverse (and often non-standardized) rainfall-based, state-based, and composite indicators. However, antecedent and within-event state variables (e.g., soil moisture, catchment storage, groundwater level) consistently provide better explanations for nonlinear runoff responses than rainfall metrics alone, indicating that threshold behavior is primarily controlled by the state of the catchment but is triggered by rainfall. Subsurface- and saturation-related mechanisms dominate the reported cases, particularly in humid environments. When mechanism shifts are explicitly documented, responses show a strong directional organization with increasing wetness, typically evolving from infiltration-excess overland flow to saturation-excess overland flow, and then to subsurface or groundwater-dominated pathways. Soil–geology network analysis further reveals that each dominant mechanism is associated with recurring combinations of soil depth, texture, permeability contrasts, lithology, and geological structure, forming structural fingerprints that regulate connectivity development. Overall, runoff thresholds are best understood as markers of hydrologic connectivity transitions within structurally constrained landscapes, rather than fixed rainfall exceedances. We propose a connectivity-based conceptual framework linking rainfall forcing, evolving states, structural controls, and mechanism transitions to support cross-catchment comparison, guide future observations, and improve the representation of nonlinear runoff responses in hydrological models.

Competing interests: At least one of the (co-)authors is a member of the editorial board of Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. The peer-review process was guided by an independent editor, and the authors also have no other competing interests to declare.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this paper. While Copernicus Publications makes every effort to include appropriate place names, the final responsibility lies with the authors. Views expressed in the text are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher.
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Journal article(s) based on this preprint

20 Aug 2026
Runoff thresholds, runoff generation mechanisms, and catchment characteristics: a global synthesis
Zhen Cui and Fuqiang Tian
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 30, 5281–5296, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-5281-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-5281-2026, 2026
Short summary
Zhen Cui and Fuqiang Tian

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2026-1265', Anonymous Referee #1, 12 Apr 2026
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Zhen Cui, 22 May 2026
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2026-1265', Jintao Liu, 13 May 2026
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Zhen Cui, 22 May 2026

Peer review completion

AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
ED: Submit a revised manuscript (17 Jun 2026) by Erwin Zehe
AR by Zhen Cui on behalf of the Authors (17 Jun 2026)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (29 Jun 2026) by Erwin Zehe
RR by Jintao Liu (27 Jul 2026)
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (07 Aug 2026)
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (10 Aug 2026) by Erwin Zehe
AR by Zhen Cui on behalf of the Authors (13 Aug 2026)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish as is (13 Aug 2026) by Erwin Zehe
AR by Zhen Cui on behalf of the Authors (17 Aug 2026)  Author's response   Manuscript 

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2026-1265', Anonymous Referee #1, 12 Apr 2026
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Zhen Cui, 22 May 2026
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2026-1265', Jintao Liu, 13 May 2026
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Zhen Cui, 22 May 2026

Peer review completion

AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
ED: Submit a revised manuscript (17 Jun 2026) by Erwin Zehe
AR by Zhen Cui on behalf of the Authors (17 Jun 2026)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (29 Jun 2026) by Erwin Zehe
RR by Jintao Liu (27 Jul 2026)
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (07 Aug 2026)
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (10 Aug 2026) by Erwin Zehe
AR by Zhen Cui on behalf of the Authors (13 Aug 2026)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish as is (13 Aug 2026) by Erwin Zehe
AR by Zhen Cui on behalf of the Authors (17 Aug 2026)  Author's response   Manuscript 

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

20 Aug 2026
Runoff thresholds, runoff generation mechanisms, and catchment characteristics: a global synthesis
Zhen Cui and Fuqiang Tian
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 30, 5281–5296, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-5281-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-5281-2026, 2026
Short summary
Zhen Cui and Fuqiang Tian
Zhen Cui and Fuqiang Tian

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Short summary
This study explores how storm runoff behavior varies across environments and identifies key factors driving these changes. We found that runoff thresholds depend on land state, such as soil moisture and groundwater levels, rather than just rainfall. A new framework is proposed to improve flood predictions and water management by focusing on landscape features, water storage, and flow paths.
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