| 12 Mar 2026
Runoff thresholds as state-dependent connectivity transitions: A global synthesis across diverse catchments
Abstract. Runoff threshold behavior is widely reported in event-based hydrological studies, but its interpretation and cross-catchment comparability remain unresolved due to variations in threshold metrics and values across climates, landscape structures, and observational focuses. This study synthesizes reported storm-runoff thresholds from experimental catchments worldwide by compiling the indicators used to detect nonlinearity, the dominant runoff generation mechanisms, their observed transition pathways under increasing wetness, and recurrent soil–geology fingerprints. Across mechanisms and climates, thresholds are identified using diverse (and often non-standardized) rainfall-based, state-based, and composite indicators. However, antecedent and within-event state variables (e.g., soil moisture, catchment storage, groundwater level) consistently provide better explanations for nonlinear runoff responses than rainfall metrics alone, indicating that threshold behavior is primarily controlled by the state of the catchment but is triggered by rainfall. Subsurface- and saturation-related mechanisms dominate the reported cases, particularly in humid environments. When mechanism shifts are explicitly documented, responses show a strong directional organization with increasing wetness, typically evolving from infiltration-excess overland flow to saturation-excess overland flow, and then to subsurface or groundwater-dominated pathways. Soil–geology network analysis further reveals that each dominant mechanism is associated with recurring combinations of soil depth, texture, permeability contrasts, lithology, and geological structure, forming structural fingerprints that regulate connectivity development. Overall, runoff thresholds are best understood as markers of hydrologic connectivity transitions within structurally constrained landscapes, rather than fixed rainfall exceedances. We propose a connectivity-based conceptual framework linking rainfall forcing, evolving states, structural controls, and mechanism transitions to support cross-catchment comparison, guide future observations, and improve the representation of nonlinear runoff responses in hydrological models.
Competing interests: At least one of the (co-)authors is a member of the editorial board of Hydrology and Earth System Sciences.
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