| 31 Mar 2026
Short-Term Management of Water-Damage Claim Risk Using Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts
Abstract. Insurers are increasingly challenged by weather-related claims arising from property damage, yet they lack adequate tools for near-term planning because traditional actuarial models do not incorporate real-time weather forecasts. This study demonstrates that incorporating ensemble precipitation forecasts improves short-range (1–4 days ahead) predictions of property insurance claim counts, thereby enabling proactive risk management. We present a forecasting framework for two Norwegian cities, Bergen and Oslo, using precipitation forecasts to predict days exceeding operationally significant thresholds. The models are evaluated by their forecast skill and reliability in predicting claim surges, as well as by their economic value in a cost-loss decision context, illustrating the potential reduction in expected costs when early warning triggers are in place. Results show that weather-informed models substantially outperform baseline models based on climatology, improving discrimination of claim events and yielding up to 30–50 % reduction in expected daily costs under various ideal warning scenarios. Two case studies of extreme events highlight how weather forecasts translated into early claims warnings could guide resource allocation and customer advisories. Overall, the presented framework highlights the practical benefit of integrating meteorological forecast information into insurance operations and offers a template for insurers to enhance climate resilience through improved risk communication and short-term decision support.
This paper addresses an important topic for early warning and heavy rainfall, which can cause damages to water-damage and surface runoff. Here, a forecasting framework for two Norwegian cities, Bergen and Oslo, has been reported. I have few comments that can be used to improve the manuscript:
Line 10: Define the date and the kind of events (e.g. thunderstorms or cyclones) considered in your work.
Line 33: “….events that cause water intrusion, overloaded drainage, and sewer backflow.” Explain better that these processes are also dependent on the kind of soils and landforms, which determine a geomorphological control for these processes.
Lines 72-75: these sentence appear to be related to a discussion part rather than an Introduction Section.
Lines 100-104: It is not very clear whether the claims refer only to heavy rainfall or if other phenomena, such as windstorms, lightning, surface runoff, etc., are also involved. If the data do not provide an accurate description of process-driven damages, try to take this uncertainty into account.
Lines 118-120: What are the limitations of having a delay in the registered claim?
Lines 135-136: You can try to inspect the convective precipitation variable, which could be better related to the claim counts.
Lines 131-132: It is not clear whether both approaches provide a binary outcome or also other info, like location affected by heavy rainfall, amount of rainfall rate, etc.
Lines 418-419: Can you insert some graphs to explain better the no-stability of the metrics?
Line 496: the central finding is not well-focused. Weather forecasts are always used in several studies and are always considering for future damage. In your case, you should better highlight the findings related to claim counts and weather forecasts.
Lines 505-506: What are the preventive actions related to insurers? I did not find some specific actions within the maintext.