Fire across frontiers: Satellite-based investigation of climate-fire interactions in the Middle East (West Asia)

Abstract. Although the global burned area has declined in recent decades, fire activity worldwide is projected to become more frequent and intense due to both climate change and human activities, including fire ignition, suppression and land use changes. In the Middle East (West Asia), climate change, rapid urbanisation, cropland expansion and armed conflict impacts all play a part in the increased risk of fire. While this region has experienced several large-scale fires over the last decade, little research has focused on regional and cross-border fire dynamics and their links to climate and other biophysical factors. This study aims to fill this gap by investigating vegetation fire dynamics across Turkey, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Lebanon, Israel and Palestine between 2001 and 2022.

We assessed long-term spatio-temporal fire trends using satellite-derived active fire and burned area products. To explore the relationship between potential factors and fire activity, we used Spearman Rank Correlation to quantify the correlation between annual burned area, active fire, climate, topography and population density. Our results reveal a prominent arc-shaped transboundary fire pattern crossing international borders, with fire risk frequently concentrated along the boundaries between neighbouring countries (Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran). Crucially, the data show that 74 per cent of the total burned area occurred on croplands, underscoring the dominance of humans in the fire regime. Regional climate and population density show only weak or limited associations with annual active fires and burned area. While topographic factors show a stronger correlation, this relationship is largely indirect, reflecting the fact that intensive agricultural burning is concentrated in flatter, more accessible areas. This study advances understanding of fire dynamics in the Middle East and further supports more effective fire risk mitigation and preparedness in the future.