the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Applied Machine Learning for Flood Susceptibility Mapping in the Loukkos Basin (Northern Morocco): Validation Using the February 2026 Ksar El Kebir Flood Event
Abstract. Flooding is a recurrent hazard in northern Morocco, where low-lying alluvial plains, strong river–floodplain connectivity, and winter storm sequences combine to produce damaging floods. This study develops an event-informed flood susceptibility assessment for the Loukkos Basin (Ksar El Kebir–Larache floodplain) by integrating satellite-derived flood evidence with geomorphometric and hydro-climatic predictors in a machine-learning framework. A binary flood inventory was derived from Sentinel-1 SAR change detection by contrasting pre-flood (October–November 2022) and flood-phase acquisitions (December 2022), and was validated using Sentinel-2 optical observations and field checks. Nine conditioning factors (elevation, slope, aspect, curvature, distance to rivers, drainage density, TWI, TPI, and CHIRPS-based rainfall) were compiled and standardized on a 10 m grid. Model training used a balanced sample of 220 points (110 flooded/110 non flooded) and was evaluated with a repeated hold-out strategy (10 iterations; 80 % training/20 % testing) using accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score. Both Random Forest (RF) and Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) produced coherent susceptibility patterns, with the highest classes concentrated along the Loukkos river corridor and downstream floodplains. Mean test performance indicates strong generalization, with MLP outperforming RF (accuracy ≈ 0.909 vs. 0.864; F1 ≈ 0.909 vs. 0.870). Jackknife sensitivity analysis identifies elevation as the leading control for both models, while RF emphasizes terrain metrics (slope, drainage density) and MLP assigns a more balanced importance to topography and hydrological drivers (TPI, rainfall, distance to channel). Notably, flooded areas observed during the January–February 2026 flood episode (Sentinel imagery dated 14 February 2026) largely coincide with zones mapped as high susceptibility, providing an independent, qualitative post-study consistency check. The resulting maps offer a practical inspection tool to support land-use planning and prioritization of mitigation actions across the most flood-prone sectors of the Loukkos Basin.
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Status: final response (author comments only)
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RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2026-1001', Anonymous Referee #1, 10 Aug 2026
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CC1: 'Reply on RC1', Hamza Akka, 10 Aug 2026
Dear Referee 1,
Thank you for the review and for the comments provided on our manuscript.
Before preparing our detailed point-by-point response, we would like to clarify one issue regarding the referee report. The submitted report appears to contain several sections referring to studies that are unrelated to our manuscript. In particular, some comments discuss sediment-yield prediction, landslide susceptibility, CO₂ forecasting, and other datasets and methodologies that are not part of our study.
Our manuscript concerns flood susceptibility mapping in the Loukkos Basin using Sentinel-1-derived flood information, nine conditioning factors, and Random Forest and Multilayer Perceptron models. We clearly recognize the section of the report that specifically addresses these elements, including the comments concerning the 220 training/testing samples, the 80/20 repeated hold-out strategy, spatial validation, the 2022 flood inventory, CHIRPS rainfall, and the February 2026 flood event.
We would therefore be grateful if the Editor could confirm whether only this Loukkos-specific section should be considered as the referee comments applicable to our manuscript, or whether a corrected version of the referee report will be provided.
Once this is clarified, we will be pleased to address all relevant comments carefully and provide a detailed response and revised manuscript.
Kind regards
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1001-CC1
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CC1: 'Reply on RC1', Hamza Akka, 10 Aug 2026
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RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2026-1001', Anonymous Referee #2, 24 Aug 2026
Dear authors,
Thanks for your effort on such nice work. Please find my comments below:
General comments
In general, the article is well-structured and clear, which helps the reader follow the article flow easily. It also makes a novel contribution to flood management and preparedness by proposing a method for flood risk assessment that uses advanced techniques, such as machine learning, to produce flood maps with identified flood risk factors in Morocco, a challenge in this country. There is also a practical need to promote scientific research in risk management. Therefore, the risk maps generated by the model can be used to enhance stakeholders' and affected communities' understanding of flood risk. The research provides meaningful recommendations for flood management in the Loukkos River basin.
Methods:
The method is well presented, with clear flow, steps, and explanation. This is one of the cases of downscaling research on flood management at the basin scale.
In my view, for flood risk assessment, even with post-event validation that supports the general result, a single event may reflect only a specific case at a given time and not capture the overall flood situation in a place like the Loukkos River basin. Other references can be used to enrich the data for assessment; for example, Loudyi et al. (2022) reported that event severity is calculated using rainfall station data from each of the nine catchments, including Loukkos.
Additionally, relying on a single event might underestimate the pressures of climate change, an emerging challenge that calls for climate-related time series that capture changes over time and variation across events to manage natural hazards effectively. The authors used post-event data from 2026 for validation, but I think the inundation areas could overlap even though the flood conditions were different, as it was rather a compounding flood event due to the impacts of the tidal scheme; therefore, the drivers of flooding were different as well. This point is crucial for flood management.
Factors influencing flooding
The research will be more convincing if the authors treat vegetation cover (not included in the Exposition), land use, and infrastructure (such as dams/reservoirs) as driving factors in their flood risk analysis. The research may need to address/discuss interactions among fluvial discharge, coastal waters, and nearshore conditions that may be associated with compound flooding susceptibility in downstream areas, as it is also mentioned in the Study Area part (line 164, page 4) and some other relevant articles.
Regarding rainfall, could you please explain why you treat it as (lines 267 – 268, page 8) “…Daily precipitation data were aggregated into monthly totals and then summed to obtain cumulative rainfall over the five-year period…” while, in my understanding, the Loukkos River basin mainly faces flash floods due to daily intensive rainfall.
Result:
Even though the flood map results from both models classify the study area into four susceptibility categories: low (0–0.25), medium (0.25–0.5), high (0.5–0.75), and very high (0.75–1), I still expect a more convincing discussion/argument on the differences in the ranking of roles of the flood drivers from the two models. I think it is important for decision-makers and affected communities to understand the risk factors to prioritize and allocate resources for risk management, or to avoid flood risks through safer master planning or integrated planning for the whole basin.
Dicussion
In my view, aside from discussing your results, some parts of this section provide additional explanation of what the methods do not address/include and what the flood susceptibility maps have not shown, which are really useful and should be on the maps/results. They include:
- Vegetation coverage: as mentioned earlier, I think it should be treated as a separate influencing factor in the model.
- Rainfall ‘Line 458 – 463’: indicating the strong role of rainfall in triggering floods, and it may help represent event intensity. This confuses me as to why, in your method, you still treat the rainfall as it is in lines 267 – 268, page 8, as ‘Daily precipitation data were aggregated into monthly totals and then summed to obtain cumulative rainfall over the five-year period’. I am concerned about this because, in my understanding, flash flood susceptibility in the Loukkos River is emerging.
- From line 504, page 16 – line 529, page 17 and lines 505 – 518, page 18: these parts discuss/explain compound susceptibility to flooding in coastal areas. This is also what I expected to see on your maps after reading some references about flood management in the Lokkous River basin, but unfortunately it is not. Therefore, this part is quite disconnected because the issue is not mentioned in the introduction, influencing factors, or method. It would be more concise if you briefly introduced it and explained in your methods or factors sections why you do not cover or address it in your research, along with the limitations.
Thank you and best regards,
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1001-RC2
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- 1
Transformer, more than meets the eye: A deep learning approach to integrate rainfall time-series in multi-type landslide probability modeling
The paper models landslide type‑specific “pseudo‑probabilities” for the May 2023 Emilia‑Romagna events using slope units (SUs). Rainfall is interpolated to SU centroids and either aggregated over fixed windows or fed as daily/hourly time series into a Transformer; static terrain/geology features go through a DNN. Authors report AUCs >0.90 and state that daily time series generally perform best, with SHAP‑based “Expected Gradients” used for explanation. There are many issues such as followings,
Very Fast Kolmogorov-Arnold Network for Landslide Susceptibility Prediction: A Case Study in Gümüşhane, Türkiye
The paper compares six algorithms (XGBoost, LightGBM, NGBoost, CatBoost, MLP, FastKAN) to map landslide susceptibility in Gümüşhane Province using 20 conditioning factors. After a “multicollinearity analysis,” the authors train models on pixel samples (1,446,696 landslide pixels + the same number of non‑landslide pixels), split randomly 70/30, tune hyperparameters with grid search, evaluate using Accuracy/Precision/Recall/F1, interpret with SHAP, and “validate” by overlaying two 2025 landslides on the FastKAN map. They report 96.54% accuracy for FastKAN and declare it the first KAN application to landslide susceptibility. There are many issues such as followings,
Estimating Temporal Probability of Rainfall-Induced Landslides Using Attention-Based Multiple Instance Learning and Daily Rainfall Data: Case Study Mt. Umyeon, Korea
There are several issues that should be addressed, as follows:
The manuscript is lack in scientific aspect. There is no survey/collection, data process and analysis and just show the existing results. The manuscript looks like report. So, the manuscript is not suitable to published in “Geosciences Journal”.
There is big problem in input data. The salinity, temperature, rainfall and tide data were used for the study. But the station of the data is very few considering the study area. Moreover, the data used after interpolation and this is not accepted because the station is too few. Also, the selection of input data should be justified. To apply the machine learning, the data should be enough. If the data is not enough, the machine learning can’t be used. So, the manuscript is not suitable to published in “Geosciences Journal”.
I can’t find the new findings in data and methodology and the manuscript is not novel. So, the manuscript can’t be published in “Geosciences Journal”
Major Comments
The dataset is too small to support such a broad model comparison. The study uses only 31 annual observations to train and tune 15 models, which creates a serious risk of overfitting, especially for more flexible models such as the 100-unit MLP. The authors should either expand the dataset or narrow the analysis to a smaller set of parsimonious models. In addition, key forecasting baselines are missing. Naïve, drift, linear-trend, exponential-smoothing, ARIMA, and lagged-CO₂ models should be included, because year-only and lagged-CO₂ baselines are essential for determining whether the proposed machine-learning models actually improve upon the historical trend.
The validation and forecasting procedures also require substantial clarification. The current validation strategy is unclear and appears unsuitable for time-series data, since random splitting or shuffled cross-validation may introduce temporal leakage. Model tuning and evaluation should instead rely on rolling-origin or expanding-window validation, preferably within a nested framework. The 2021–2030 forecasts are also not reproducible. Because the models require future values of domestic credit, GDP, population, renewable energy consumption, and trade openness, the manuscript must clearly explain how these future predictor values were generated, forecasted, or assumed under specific scenarios.
Several methodological details and interpretation issues should be addressed before the results can be considered reliable. Preprocessing and hyperparameter tuning are insufficiently described; the manuscript should report scaling procedures, search spaces, validation criteria, random seeds, software versions, and complete model settings. Preprocessing must be fitted only on the training data, and all models should receive comparable tuning effort. The model-selection approach is also inconsistent: although Bagging performs best in Table 5, other models are later selected as the “most plausible” mainly because their forecast curves visually resemble the historical trend. Model selection should follow predefined out-of-sample performance criteria rather than visual judgment. Finally, the XAI analysis is unclear and appears overinterpreted. The manuscript should specify which model was explained using SHAP, LIME, and permutation importance, and given the small sample size and strong correlations among predictors, feature rankings should be treated as unstable predictive associations rather than causal effects.
Integrating Multi-Temporal Synthetic Aperture Radar Observations and Boosting Ensemble Learning for High-Resolution Flood Susceptibility Mapping in Napa County, California
The manuscript has lack in novelty and completeness in many parts. Please check the followings,
Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence
An environmental similarity-guided attention neural network for landslide susceptibility mapping in underrepresented environments
After checking the manuscript, the manuscript can’t be published in present form because there are some major issues such as followings,
Geoscience Frontiers
From spatial dependence to temporal memory: A unified graph neural network for spatiotemporal landslide susceptibility prediction
Before the check the model and validation, there are serious missing of basic information such as followings,
So, the manuscript can’t be reviewed and published to the journal.
- The manuscript addresses a relevant topic and the authors have made a clear effort to respond to the previous reviewers. However, I still have a major concern regarding the fundamental design of the study.
- The main issue is that the sediment yield used as the target variable is not based on direct observations. Instead, it was estimated from a discharge–sediment rating relationship. The authors now acknowledge this limitation and the resulting structural dependence between the target and several hydrological predictors.
- This makes the very high machine-learning performance difficult to interpret. In particular, runoff volume, peak discharge, and their derived variables are closely related to the discharge information already used to generate the proxy sediment yield. Therefore, an RF R2 of about 0.94 may partly reflect this built-in relationship rather than true predictive capability.
- The addition of 5-fold cross-validation improves the analysis, but it does not resolve this underlying circularity.
- I am also concerned about the small number of independent events (69) relative to the large number of tested model and feature combinations. Some configurations include up to 196 predictors, which further raises concerns about overfitting and the robustness of the reported results.
- In my view, these limitations affect the central conclusions of the paper and cannot be adequately addressed by further textual revision alone. Independent sediment observations would be necessary to properly validate the proposed framework.