Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6568
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6568
13 Jan 2026
 | 13 Jan 2026
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).

A protocol for vulnerability and exposure assessment in rapid extreme event attribution studies

Roop K. Singh, Julie Arrighi, Maja Vahlberg, Annalena Bacher, Carolina Pereira Marghidan, and Maarten van Aalst

Abstract. Over the past decade, the number of rapid extreme event attribution studies have increased substantially, both in frequency and speed of completion, often released in just a couple of weeks after an extreme weather event. Rapid analysis of vulnerability and exposure is a key complement to the hazard analysis in these studies in order to ensure a more holistic understanding of the drivers of observed impacts. In this paper, we present a method for rapid vulnerability and exposure assessment developed by the World Weather Attribution group. It focuses on the development and use of hazard-specific vulnerability and exposure assessment templates that are applied during a rapid literature review covering media, grey and academic literature. These templates are applied in conjunction with local expert judgement to elicit both breadth and depth of the assessment of potential drivers.  This protocol supports the systematic integration of vulnerability and exposure into rapid attribution studies, strengthening their ability to inform the public about changing climate risks.

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Roop K. Singh, Julie Arrighi, Maja Vahlberg, Annalena Bacher, Carolina Pereira Marghidan, and Maarten van Aalst

Status: open (until 24 Feb 2026)

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Roop K. Singh, Julie Arrighi, Maja Vahlberg, Annalena Bacher, Carolina Pereira Marghidan, and Maarten van Aalst
Roop K. Singh, Julie Arrighi, Maja Vahlberg, Annalena Bacher, Carolina Pereira Marghidan, and Maarten van Aalst
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Latest update: 13 Jan 2026
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Short summary
People have been studying the role of climate change in extreme weather for over a decade, but few groups do this quickly and include human factors that contribute to impacts.  We developed a rapid way to understand why some people and places are hit harder by extreme weather. By combining local knowledge with a quick review of research and news articles we gain a first-order understanding of the factors that contribute to or reduce impacts. This helps the public better understand climate risk.
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