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https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6533
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6533
12 Feb 2026
 | 12 Feb 2026
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).

Resolving Systematic Errors in Sulfate Source Apportionment: A Field-Validated Kinetic Isotope Fractionation Framework

Zhaobing Guo, Xuexue Bai, Qiwei Ai, Zizheng Xu, Shangshun Ma, Jiayu Gu, Pengxiang Qiu, and Qingjun Guo

Abstract. Sulfates represent a critical constituent of atmospheric fine particulate matter (PM2.5), significantly influencing air quality and climate dynamics. Precise quantification of atmospheric sulfate formation mechanisms and emission sources through stable isotope fractionation analysis represents a critical advancement in particulate matter pollution control. Conventional isotopic models relying on idealized complete SO2 oxidation scenarios, while providing preliminary source apportionment estimates, exhibit systematic errors in reaction pathway quantification. Our field-validated approach incorporating actual atmospheric oxidation processes demonstrates that transition-metal ions (TMI)-catalyzed and NO2-mediated pathways dominate sulfate production, with coal combustion (overestimate by 10.8 % in summer) and traffic emissions (underestimated by 8.2 % in summer) constituting primary sources. Comparative analysis reveals that traditional complete-oxidation models disproportionately diminish TMI pathway contributions, highlighting the necessity of kinetic fractionation corrections. These findings establish an improved isotopic tracing framework that resolves longstanding calculation discrepancies, delivering essential constraints for atmospheric sulfur cycle modeling and emission regulation strategies.

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Zhaobing Guo, Xuexue Bai, Qiwei Ai, Zizheng Xu, Shangshun Ma, Jiayu Gu, Pengxiang Qiu, and Qingjun Guo

Status: open (until 08 Apr 2026)

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Zhaobing Guo, Xuexue Bai, Qiwei Ai, Zizheng Xu, Shangshun Ma, Jiayu Gu, Pengxiang Qiu, and Qingjun Guo
Zhaobing Guo, Xuexue Bai, Qiwei Ai, Zizheng Xu, Shangshun Ma, Jiayu Gu, Pengxiang Qiu, and Qingjun Guo

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Short summary
We refined the traditional isotopic mathematical model, originally predicated on the assumption of exhaustive sulfur dioxide oxidation, to account for the incomplete oxidation processes observed in our field campaigns. By constraining this modified framework with in-situ isotopic data, we demonstrated that conventional models, which overlook this partial oxidation, tend to significantly underestimate sulfate source contributions during the summer.
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