Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6526
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6526
05 Jan 2026
 | 05 Jan 2026
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Ocean Science (OS).

Along-channel Variability of Total Exchange Flow in a Narrow, Well-mixed Estuary: Influence of the M4 Tide

Manuel Diez-Minguito and Hans Burchard

Abstract. This study provides preliminary estimates of Total Exchange Flow (TEF) along the Guadalquivir River Estuary (Spain) at notable cross-sections during low river flows. The analysis combines observations recorded during 3 years by a real time monitoring network and analytical model output for a well-mixed M2+M4 tidal flow with oscillating salinity. Exchange profiles and volume and salinity transports sorted by salinity classes are computed. The results indicate that bulk along-channel TEF estimates decrease upstream.

The largest net incoming water volume transport, viz. approx. 300 m3 s-1, is attained at the lower part of the estuary, near where the largest salinity gradient is observed. This value is about 12-fold the normal river flow from the head dam at Alcalá del Río. Knudsen-consistent bulk quantities evidence the weakly-stratified character of the Guadalquivir estuary, whose mixing completeness is larger than 67 % at all cross-sections. The covariance between salinity and current seems to play a more important role in exchange flow in the Guadalquivir estuary than the effects due to tidal asymmetry.

Overall, the inclusion of the M4 improves TEF estimates in ∼ 10 % in the Guadalquivir estuary. A sensitivity analysis shows that in other estuaries and semi-enclosed basins the effects of the M4 could be even larger. The inclusion of the M4 constituent changes thickness and magnitude of the bi-layer exchange flow by salinity class. A remarkable inflow could be obtained at low salinity classes when the estuary exhibits large M4 current amplitude and M4 current phases close to 160°.

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Manuel Diez-Minguito and Hans Burchard

Status: open (until 02 Mar 2026)

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Manuel Diez-Minguito and Hans Burchard
Manuel Diez-Minguito and Hans Burchard

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Short summary
Combining field observations with an idealized tidal model, we estimated exchange flow in a prototypical well-mixed estuary. The results reveal remarkable spatial variability and highlight that tidal asymmetry in salinity and currents enhances exchange flow – key to understand estuarine circulation. This methodology facilitates the systematic analysis of climate-driven trends in exchange flows, salt intrusion, and water quality across multiple estuaries at a regional scale.
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