Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6314
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6314
17 Mar 2026
 | 17 Mar 2026
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).

DeepMelt-GL v1: A neural network emulator of ice-shelf melt rates for use in ocean models which partially resolve ice-shelf cavities

Helen Ockenden, Clara Burgard, Pierre Mathiot, Christoph Kittel, Achille Gellens, Cécile Agosta, and Nicolas C. Jourdain

Abstract. The spatial pattern of melting beneath Antarctic ice shelves influences ice flow and retreat, and the resulting fresh-water input into the Southern Ocean influences global carbon storage and primary productivity. It is therefore crucial that interactions at the ice-ocean interface are adequately represented in global climate models. However, due to computational limitations, existing climate models are forced to choose between either high resolution or long period simulations, and struggle to resolve melt rates in ice shelf cavities. Here, we show that a simple multilayer perceptron can be used to emulate sub-shelf melt rates in the parts of cavities closest to the grounding zone. We find that the melt rates produced by applying neural network emulators are a good match for melt rates from high resolution simulations, provided that similar conditions were included in the neural network training. We also find that neural networks are particularly sensitive to temperatures and ice-draft slopes outside those used in the training dataset. However, if we train multiple neural networks on the same input data, we demonstrate that the ensemble spread of the neural networks is a good indicator of the reliability of the emulator in any given conditions. The neural network emulator of sub-shelf melt which is presented here, DeepMelt-GL, can be used to improve the representation of ice shelf cavities in both ocean and global climate models.

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Helen Ockenden, Clara Burgard, Pierre Mathiot, Christoph Kittel, Achille Gellens, Cécile Agosta, and Nicolas C. Jourdain

Status: open (until 12 May 2026)

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Helen Ockenden, Clara Burgard, Pierre Mathiot, Christoph Kittel, Achille Gellens, Cécile Agosta, and Nicolas C. Jourdain

Data sets

Data which accompanies the manuscript "A neural network emulator of ice-shelf melt rates for use in ocean models which partially resolve ice-shelf cavities" Helen Ockenden, Clara Burgard, Pierre Mathiot, and Christoph Kittel https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17358229

Model code and software

Code which accompanies the manuscript "A neural network emulator of ice-shelf melt rates for use in ocean models which partially resolve ice-shelf cavities" Helen Ockenden and Clara Burgard https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17358195

Helen Ockenden, Clara Burgard, Pierre Mathiot, Christoph Kittel, Achille Gellens, Cécile Agosta, and Nicolas C. Jourdain
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Latest update: 17 Mar 2026
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Short summary
Since numerical computing is expensive, climate models must decide between having a high spatial resolution or running for long time periods. Here, we develop a simple neural network to emulate small-scale processes occurring beneath Antarctic ice shelves, which allows sub-shelf melt and ice-ocean interactions to be included in global ocean models which can run for multiple centuries. This neural network will help us to understand how ocean circulation may change in the future.
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