Mud Volcano Dynamics in Azerbaijan: The Overlooked Role of Creeping Mud Flows in Landscape Evolution

Abstract. Azerbaijan hosts the world's highest concentration of mud volcanoes (Mvs) on Earth, including some of the largest edifices that produce kilometre-scale mud breccia flows. Traditionally, such flows have been attributed to major eruptive events; however, recent study suggests that many of these flows form through prolonged creeping processes, analogous to warm-based glacier motion. To assess the prevalence and characteristics of this phenomenon, we analysed historical satellite imagery from Google Earth™ for several dozen mud volcanoes across the Caspian Basin, complemented by field observations at selected sites. Our analysis reveals that 19 mud volcanoes exhibit measurable creeping surface displacement of preexisting mud flows, with rates ranging from a few metres to tens of metres per decade. While some volcanoes, such as Goturdag, display continuous deformation across entire flow lengths, most of them exhibit only episodic motion in connection to mud volcano eruptions. While most creeping flows occur outside inhabited areas, landforms such as Bozdaq Gobu represent a potential hazard to settlements and infrastructure. These findings highlight the importance of post-eruptive creep in mud volcano evolution and emphasize the need for ongoing monitoring and hazard awareness.