Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6248
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6248
31 Mar 2026
 | 31 Mar 2026
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).

Optimizing WRF physics for multi-decadal simulation of near-surface climate over arid Xinjiang, China

Yang Xu, Liang Zhang, Mengxin Bai, Shenzhen Tian, and Zhixin Hao

Abstract. Complex terrain, heterogeneous surfaces, and diverse moisture sources complicate mesoscale modeling in arid and semi-arid regions. To evaluate the performance of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model physics in Xinjiang, we tested 34 combinations of physical parameterizations to simulate near-surface climate variables for 1960–2020 and evaluated the simulations against surface observations. Overall skill was highest for 2 m air temperature and surface pressure, moderate for 10 m wind speed and 2 m relative humidity, and lowest for precipitation. Surface downward shortwave radiation was systematically overestimated in spring and summer. Sensitivity analyses show that the Betts–Miller–Janjic (BMJ) cumulus and WRF double-moment 6-class (WDM6) microphysics schemes improve precipitation simulation, while the Mellor–Yamada–Nakanishi–Niino (MYNN) planetary boundary layer scheme improves the representation of wind speed and relative humidity. Configurations using the Simplified Arakawa–Schubert (SAS) or Tiedtke cumulus schemes perform better for surface downward shortwave radiation, and the Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) improves simulations of temperature and surface pressure. A multi-variable composite evaluation identifies an ensemble-optimal physics suite consisting of Thompson microphysics, Tiedtke cumulus, Rapid Radiative Transfer Model (RRTM) longwave and Dudhia shortwave radiation schemes, the Grenier–Bretherton–McCaa (GBM) planetary boundary layer scheme, the Revised MM5 surface-layer scheme, and the Noah-MP land surface model. This configuration provides the most balanced performance across variables and offers a reference for regional climate simulation in arid and semi-arid regions.

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Yang Xu, Liang Zhang, Mengxin Bai, Shenzhen Tian, and Zhixin Hao

Status: open (until 26 May 2026)

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  • CEC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-6248 - No compliance with the policy of the journal', Juan Antonio Añel, 01 Apr 2026 reply
Yang Xu, Liang Zhang, Mengxin Bai, Shenzhen Tian, and Zhixin Hao

Model code and software

Code description (for GMD code upload) Yang Xu https://github.com/apsiamsuer/GMD

Yang Xu, Liang Zhang, Mengxin Bai, Shenzhen Tian, and Zhixin Hao
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Latest update: 01 Apr 2026
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Short summary
We compared many model configurations to identify a reliable setup for long-term climate simulation in arid Xinjiang, China. Dozens of options were tested over six decades for temperature, rainfall, wind, humidity, radiation, and pressure. Performance depends strongly on how atmospheric and land processes are combined. We recommend a balanced configuration to support climate studies and high-quality data products in dry, complex terrain.
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