Parameter estimation for land-surface models using Neural Physics

Huang, Ruiyue; Heaney, Claire E.; van Reeuwijk, Maarten

doi:10.48550/arXiv.2505.02979

Preprints

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2505.02979

Preprints

05 Jan 2026

| 05 Jan 2026

Parameter estimation for land-surface models using Neural Physics

Ruiyue Huang, Claire E. Heaney, and Maarten van Reeuwijk

Abstract. The Neural Physics approach is used to determine the parameters of a simple land-surface model using PyTorch’s backpropagation engine to carry out the optimisation. In order to test the inverse model, a synthetic dataset is created by running the model in forward mode with known parameter values to create soil temperature time series that can be used as observations for the inverse model. We show that it is not possible to obtain a reliable parameter estimation using a time series of soil temperature observed at a single depth. Using measurements at two depths, reliable parameter estimates can be obtained although it is not possible to differentiate between latent and sensible heat fluxes. We apply the inverse model to urban flux tower data in Phoenix, United States, and show that the thermal conductivity, volumetric heat capacity, and the combined sensible-latent heat transfer coefficient can be reliably estimated using an observed value for the effective surface albedo. The resulting model accurately predicts the outgoing longwave radiation, conductive soil fluxes and the combined sensible-latent heat fluxes.

Received: 11 Dec 2025 – Discussion started: 05 Jan 2026

Ruiyue Huang, Claire E. Heaney, and Maarten van Reeuwijk

Status: final response (author comments only)

RC1:
'Comment on egusphere-2025-6015', Anonymous Referee #1, 06 Feb 2026

This study uses machine learning approaches to determine soil parameter values of a simplified land surface model, based on soil temperature data. A key finding of the study is that it is not possible to determine some soil parameters using observations of soil temperature at a single depth level, but that two depths can reliably estimate soil parameters including heat capacity, conductivity and air-surface heat flux transfer coefficients.
The manuscript is well structured and presented with conclusions that are well supported by the results. I commend the authors for introducing new methods to this field, generating novel results, and communicating/discussing results very clearly. I therefore have only a few comments. I am not a machine learning expert, so I leave the details of the machine learning approaches to other reviewers.
Page 3 states the land surface model “does not incorporate water in the sub-surface”, in which case I would have expected latent heat flux to be zero. However much of the paper is given to discussing the partitioning of latent/sensible heat fluxes, and the inverse model is asked to find the Bowen Ratio. Can authors explain from where latent heat fluxes in this scenario are originating or be explicit that latent heat fluxes are expected to be zero. If zero, can authors simplify the parameter inputs to exclude Bowen Ratio (i.e. all turbulent fluxes are partitioned into sensible heat in this scenario)?
On Page 8 the solar zenith angle is parameterised. A short explanation of the form of the parametrisation would be useful for readers.
The provided code (https://github.com/RuiyueH/SEB-model) does not include any instructions or README. In its current state I would not say this study is easily reproducible.
If authors wish to reach a larger audience, more consideration could be given to different reader backgrounds. I believe those with machine learning interests are well served, but authors could also consider users of traditional land-surface models and teams that observe land-atmosphere fluxes at flux tower sites. Both may find this machine learning technique interesting and potentially useful (although the current no-moisture LSM employed is a barrier, as authors have noted in the conclusion). Still, it could be beneficial for the reach of this study if authors further consider these users in the text and then provide an easier-to-follow code example. The current codebase includes no instructions for these users.
Authors could also take the opportunity to reconsider the abstract with a wider audience in mind (as above), for example indicating the potential of this approach for determining specific soil characteristics but mentioning current barriers (e.g. the current assumption of no soil water).

Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6015-RC1
- AC4: 'Reply on RC1', Ruiyue Huang, 31 Mar 2026
  
  Thank you for taking the time to carefully review our paper. We have revised our manuscript as a result of your comments and we respond below to each of your points.
  Comment 1: Page 3 states the land surface model “does not incorporate water in the sub-surface”, in which case I would have expected latent heat flux to be zero. However much of the paper is given to discussing the partitioning of latent/sensible heat fluxes, and the inverse model is asked to find the Bowen Ratio. Can authors explain from where latent heat fluxes in this scenario are originating or be explicit that latent heat fluxes are expected to be zero. If zero, can authors simplify the parameter inputs to exclude Bowen Ratio (i.e. all turbulent fluxes are partitioned into sensible heat in this scenario)?
  Authors’ reply: To clarify, we do not mean that there is no water in the system. Rather, we did not incorporate a subsurface moisture model to represent processes such as heat transport by water in the subsurface. We have revised the line to make this clearer.
  Comment 2: On Page 8 the solar zenith angle is parameterised. A short explanation of the form of the parametrisation would be useful for readers.
  Authors’ reply: In line with your suggestions, we have revised the paragraph to provide more details on the parameterisation.
  Comment 3: The provided code (https://github.com/RuiyueH/SEB-model) does not include any instructions or README. In its current state I would not say this study is easily reproducible.
  Authors’ reply: We have revised the code repository and added instructions as well as a README to make it easier to follow. The latest version can be found at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19344692.
  Comment 4: If authors wish to reach a larger audience, more consideration could be given to different reader backgrounds. I believe those with machine learning interests are well served, but authors could also consider users of traditional land-surface models and teams that observe land-atmosphere fluxes at flux tower sites. Both may find this machine learning technique interesting and potentially useful (although the current no-moisture LSM employed is a barrier, as authors have noted in the conclusion). Still, it could be beneficial for the reach of this study if authors further consider these users in the text and then provide an easier-to-follow code example. The current codebase includes no instructions for these users.
  Authors’ reply: We have included some sample codes for Neural Physics using a simpler example - solving the second-order derivative of sin(x). For the code for the land surface model, we have split them into (i) forward model (synthetic data), (ii) inverse model (synthetic data) and (iii) inverse model (West Phoenix data), so that users can reproduce the results step-by-step.
  Comment 5: Authors could also take the opportunity to reconsider the abstract with a wider audience in mind (as above), for example indicating the potential of this approach for determining specific soil characteristics but mentioning current barriers (e.g. the current assumption of no soil water).
  Authors’ reply: We have rewritten parts of the abstract and introduction to try to make them more generally accessible and included limitations in the abstract.
  
  Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6015-AC4
CEC1:
'Comment on egusphere-2025-6015 - No compliance with the policy of the journal', Juan Antonio Añel, 06 Feb 2026

Dear authors,
Unfortunately, after checking your manuscript, it has come to our attention that it does not comply with our "Code and Data Policy".
https://www.geoscientific-model-development.net/policies/code_and_data_policy.html
First, I am sorry that have to point that a previous comment by the Topical Editor regarding compliance with the policy of the EDI site was incorrect. We can not accept that you store data necessary to replicate your work in such site, which we can not consider a long-term trusted repository for scientific publication. Therefore, you must store the data linked from such site in one of the repositories we accept. Right now, it is unclear if they are included in the Zenodo repository, which you have provided us internally, but not published in your submitted manuscript, under the file on flux tower data. I am linking here the mentioned Zenodo repository, so that readers and the scientific community have access to it during the Discussions stage, which is mandatory and necessary:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18004983
Beyond all this, you do not provide the exact input and output files of your computations, neither the NN4PDE which you use for your manuscript. Also, the provided Python notebooks rely on many third party libraries, for which you have not indicated their versions. This is important to ensure the replicability of your work, as the same algorithm could be coded in very different ways in different versions of them. Therefore, please, we are requesting you to identify the versions of Python and libraries that you have used for your work.
The GMD review process depends on reviewers and community commentators being able to access, during the discussion phase, the code and data on which a manuscript depends, and on having clear information on the software used. Please, therefore, address the issues pointed above and publish your code and data in one of the appropriate repositories and reply to this comment with the relevant information (link and a permanent identifier for it (e.g. DOI)) as soon as possible. We cannot have manuscripts under discussion that do not comply with our policy.
Also, please, note that the 'Code and Data Availability’ section of your manuscript must also be modified to cite the new repository locations, and corresponding references added to the bibliography.
I must note that if you do not fix this problem, we cannot continue with the peer-review process or accept your manuscript for publication in GMD.
Juan A. Añel

Geosci. Model Dev. Executive Editor

Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6015-CEC1
- AC3: 'Reply on CEC1', Ruiyue Huang, 31 Mar 2026
  
  Dear Juan,
  Thank you for your comment. We sincerely apologise for not fully complying with the relevant policies in our initial submission.
  We have since revised the code repository to (i) provide clearer instructions and explanations of both the model and the Neural Physics approach, (ii) specify the required versions of all third party libraries, and (iii) include the necessary input and output files.
  The revised code has been published under https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19344692. The manuscript has also been revised to cite the DOI in the 'Code and Data Availability’ section, and the corresponding reference has been added to the bibliography.
  We hope the revised repository is now clear and complete. We apologise again for the oversight in our initial submission.
  
  Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6015-AC3
RC2:
'Comment on egusphere-2025-6015', Anonymous Referee #2, 18 Feb 2026
In this article, the authors investigate the parameter calibration of a simple soil energy model with prescribed surfaces fluxes with a gradient-descent based optimisation.
They implemented the finite difference discretisation as discrete convolutions so they could use PyTorch to implement the model and achieve an differentiable implementation of the soil energy model.
They do two experiments on synthetic data, for which he authors find that a single depth observation is not enough for this, but two are. Then, they calibrate on the observational data, and claim a good agreement with the observational data.
I am not convinced the article is significant enough for GMD and there are also flaws in the approach of the authors. First, about the significance: I am not a domain expert in land surface models but I’ve seen a wealth of research in differentiable models and hybrid ML e.g. for global hydrological models that are least somewhat related and these approaches go significantly beyond the model complexity shown here. The model the authors use isn’t very complex and they just do a simple parameter estimation via gradient-descent from what I understand.
Especially for the Phoenix dataset: It is absolute standard practice to do a training - validation - test dataset split. The authors seemingly haven’t done so. They even remark themselves: “This is not surprising, as these are the time series that were used in the optimisation”. Without a data split you can’t evaluate your results properly.
Minor issues/questions:
I know GMD is not an ML or statistics journal but I still really don’t think you need a flow chart to explain gradient decent optimisation. It’s such a basic algorithm.

Why write down the formula for a vanilla gradient descent in Eq 15 when you don’t actually use it, but ADAM. ADAM includes momentum and doesn't follow Eq15

ADAM uses adaptive learning rates, yet you write of set values of the learning rate for each variable. How can I understand this?

In the reverse pass (so the computation of the gradients) did you pass through all iterations of the Jacobi iteration or did you use an adjoint of the operation?

I’ve never seen the learning rate $\eta$ being called “step length”. It’s very unusual

Why is the data in the Phoenix dataset bias-corrected and what impact has this on the results?
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6015-RC2
- AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Ruiyue Huang, 31 Mar 2026
  
  Thank you for taking the time to carefully review our paper. We have revised our manuscript as a result of your comments and we respond below to each of your points.
  Comment 1: I am not convinced the article is significant enough for GMD and there are also flaws in the approach of the authors. First, about the significance: I am not a domain expert in land surface models but I’ve seen a wealth of research in differentiable models and hybrid ML e.g. for global hydrological models that are least somewhat related and these approaches go significantly beyond the model complexity shown here. The model the authors use isn’t very complex and they just do a simple parameter estimation via gradient-descent from what I understand.
  Authors’ reply: Thank you for this comment. We present a fully differentiable, physics-based formulation of a land-surface model that enables end-to-end parameter estimation using gradient-based optimisation. While the forward model is intentionally simple, this allows us to isolate and systematically analyse the optimisation problem, including issues of identifiability and parameter dependence. The key contribution is not increased model complexity, but the demonstration that such models can be calibrated efficiently without adjoint derivation, and that the framework provides direct insight into when parameter estimation is well-posed and how this depends on the observational configuration.
  Our approach is therefore distinct from recent hybrid physics–machine learning models, which introduce trainable components to learn unresolved processes. Instead, we retain a fully physics-based model and use machine-learning functionality solely to enable differentiability and optimisation. This provides a practical pathway for applying data assimilation and sensitivity analysis to land-surface models, without requiring bespoke adjoint implementations or specialised optimisation infrastructure.
  Comment 2: Especially for the Phoenix dataset: It is absolute standard practice to do a training - validation - test dataset split. The authors seemingly haven’t done so. They even remark themselves: “This is not surprising, as these are the time series that were used in the optimisation”. Without a data split you can’t evaluate your results properly.
  Authors’ reply: Note that we do not train any neural networks for the results shown in our paper. However, we do agree with the reviewer that we should test our model on data not used in the parameter estimation process. We now use the first 150 hours of soil temperature measurements for the parameter estimation and use a subsequent 50 hours of data for evaluation of the model. Section 3.3 has been updated to reflect this. We note that due to temporal correlation in the forcing and state variables, this split does not represent fully independent samples, but provides a first test of out-of-sample predictive capability.
  Comment 3: I know GMD is not an ML or statistics journal but I still really don’t think you need a flow chart to explain gradient decent optimisation. It’s such a basic algorithm.
  Authors’ reply: Thank you for highlighting this. We agree that gradient descent is a well-established and widely understood optimisation method. We have therefore removed this diagram and replaced it with one that illustrates our end-to-end differentiable physics-based approach to parameter estimation, thereby clarifying the key features of the proposed methodology.
  Comment 4: Why write down the formula for a vanilla gradient descent in Eq 15 when you don’t actually use it, but ADAM. ADAM includes momentum and doesn't follow Eq15.
  Authors’ reply: Thank you for the suggestion. We have removed this equation.
  Comment 5: ADAM uses adaptive learning rates, yet you write of set values of the learning rate for each variable. How can I understand this?
  Authors’ reply: The ADAM algorithm starts with an initial step length for each parameter which is modified as the iterations progress. All we do is to set a different initial step length for each parameter because the parameters have very different magnitudes. The step length is modified as usual by ADAM. According to Kingma and Ba (2017), the setting of the initial learning rate (or stepsize) is still important for ADAM, because the effective magnitude of the steps taken in parameter space in each iteration are approximately bounded by the step size that was set. We also learned this from our own tests: C changes very little each iteration if we use the same small step size as other parameters.
  Comment 6: In the reverse pass (so the computation of the gradients) did you pass through all iterations of the Jacobi iteration or did you use an adjoint of the operation?
  Authors’ reply: Yes, we pass through all iterations of the Jacobi method, which is the discrete adjoint.
  Comment 7: I’ve never seen the learning rate $\eta$ being called “step length”. It’s very unusual.
  Authors’ reply: In classical optimisation, $\eta$ is very often referred to as step length or step size, see Fletcher (1987) or Nocedal and Wright (2006), for example. Even in machine-learning texts it can be referred to as stepsize, see Kingma and Ba (2017), although in the machine-learning context the term learning rate is much more common. We wish to convey to the reader that we are not training a neural network, instead we are using steepest descent to solve an optimisation problem and so chose the terminology “step length” in line with classical texts on optimisation. We have added references to the text.
  Comment 8: Why is the data in the Phoenix dataset bias-corrected and what impact has this on the results?
  Authors’ reply: According to Lipson et al (2024), the ERA5 reanalysis data is bias-corrected using site observations, to account for diurnal and seasonal biases in the reanalysis method. The bias-corrected reanalysis data is then used to fill gaps in the original data collected from flux tower.
  References:
  Fletcher (1987) Practical Methods of Optimization. Second edition, Wiley & Sons, doi:10.1002/9781118723203.
  Nocedal and Wright (2006) Numerical Optimization. Second Edition, Springer, doi:10.1007/978-0-387-40065-5.
  Kingma and Ba (2017) ADAM: A Method for Stochastic Optimization, ICLR 2015, arXiv preprint 1412.6980, doi:10.48550/arXiv.1412.6980.
  Lipson, M. J., Grimmond, S., Best, M., Abramowitz, G., Coutts, A., Tapper, N., Baik, J.-J., Beyers, M., Blunn, L., Boussetta, S., Bou-Zeid, E., De Kauwe, M. G., de Munck, C., Demuzere, M., Fatichi, S., Fortuniak, K., Han, B.-S., Hendry, M. A., Kikegawa, Y., Kondo, H., Lee, D.-I., Lee, S.-H., Lemonsu, A., Machado, T., Manoli, G., Martilli, A., Masson, V., McNorton, J., Meili, N., Meyer, D., Nice, K. A., Oleson, K. W., Park, S.-B., Roth, M., Schoetter, R., Simón-Moral, A., Steeneveld, G.-J., Sun, T., Takane, Y., Thatcher, M., Tsiringakis, A., Varentsov, M., Wang, C., Wang, Z.-H., and Pitman, A. J.: Evaluation of 30 urban land surface models in the Urban-PLUMBER project: Phase 1 results, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 150, 126–169, https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4589, 2024.
  
  Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6015-AC2
EC1:
'Comment on egusphere-2025-6015', Ting Sun, 10 Mar 2026

Please find a review from another anonymous reviewer, posted on their behalf due to late submission.

Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6015-EC1
- AC1: 'Reply on EC1', Ruiyue Huang, 31 Mar 2026
  
  Thank you for taking the time to carefully review our paper. We have revised our manuscript as a result of your comments and we respond below to each of your points.
  Comment 1: First of all, there are missing key literature reviews on differentiable land surface model (LSM). Differentiable LSM is not new anymore. Several studies in the past few years developed different differentiable LSMs by refactoring the physical models into a framework that supports automatic differentiation (e.g., JAX, PyTorch, and Julia), including but not limited to, Fang and Gentine (2024; doi: 10.1029/2024MS004308) and Jiang et al. (2025; doi: 10.1029/2024WR038116). They are neither referred or discussed in the manuscript. It is also unclear what’s the benefit of the proposed differentiable LSM compared to the existing one, instead of having a new model available in the market.
  Authors’ reply: Thank you for bringing our attention to those papers. We have included them and some others in our literature review, and revised the text to make clear how our method differs from other approaches. In a nutshell, our method reimagines numerical discretisations as convolutional neural networks where the weights are set analytically according to the choice of discretisation scheme. Our approach is purely physics-based and we do not train the neural network or develop a hybrid approach as such.
  The key contribution of this work is the formulation of a land-surface model as a fully differentiable, physics-based system that enables efficient, end-to-end parameter estimation and analysis. By expressing the governing equations within a machine-learning framework, we avoid the need for deriving and maintaining adjoint models and can directly apply gradient-based optimisation to time-dependent problems. In addition, this formulation provides insight into parameter identifiability and confounding (e.g. identifiable parameter combinations and the role of observational configuration), which is typically difficult to assess in traditional calibration workflows. We have revised the manuscript to clarify that the contribution lies in this differentiable formulation and its implications for parameter estimation and analysis, rather than in the development of a new operational LSM.
  Comment 2: Second, the so-called “Neural physics” might be over-stated. While the model is reimplemented in PyTorch, no trainable deep learning layer is used except the adoption of a convolutional layer with fixed parameters to solve the heat equation. In that sense, the whole model is still pure physics-based and no DL is involved to learn additional dynamics that are not captured by the model. It is oftentimes expected to see the adoption of hybrid modeling in these differentiable modeling, which in fact has been studied in Fang and Gentine (2024) and Jiang et al. (2025).
  Authors’ reply: Neural physics is a term coined in Chen et al. (2026) that refers to using the convolutional layers of a neural network to implement numerical discretisations. In this paper we showcase its ability as a land-surface model and demonstrate how a model like this can be used straightforwardly to calibrate the parameters – a process that is typically tedious (see Lipson et al. 2024) . As such the concept is not over-stated, rather it is the core of what we present here. We recognise that the term may be interpreted differently across communities and have clarified in the manuscript that no trainable neural network components are used in this study.
  Whilst it is certainly possible to augment our model with a deep learning layer, the parameter calibration shows that the model as posed is able to reproduce the observations reasonably well. For longer time-series, more sophisticated modelling is required and it might be needed to add a deep learning layer.
  Note that there is an appetite for differentiable physics-based solvers. As we were uploading our paper to GMD, another paper was under review with a similar scope to ours (Tian, 2026), which investigates the physics-based modelling of permafrost using Recurrent Neural Networks. Although similar, using Convolutional Neural Networks gives greater scope for implementing multigrid solvers, advantageous in improving convergence.
  We have modified the abstract, introduction and conclusion to better explain the approach that we propose in this paper.
  Comment 3: Essentially, the adopted optimization technique is nothing new but a gradient-based optimization. While supported by AD, this is fundamentally no different from other gradient-based approach. Trying different initial values is also nothing new in optimization field which is always struggling in getting the global optimal solution.
  Authors’ reply: Exactly. In this paper we use gradient-based optimisation to assimilate data and estimate parameters of LSMs. The novelty of the method lies in using convolutional neural networks to represent the discretised physics as explained in our response to this reviewer’s first and second points. The key advance is not the use of gradient-based optimisation per se, but that the full parameter estimation problem for a time-dependent LSM can be solved end-to-end in a differentiable framework without adjoint derivation or bespoke optimisation infrastructure. While gradient-based optimisation itself is not new, the differentiable implementation removes the need for deriving and maintaining adjoint models, which is a significant practical barrier in traditional LSM calibration workflows.
  Comment 4: Lastly, the challenge of estimating dependent or confounding parameters is not addressed except a restatement of the existing difficulty in this particularly setting. In fact, such equifinality issue is a long-standing challenge in calibrating earth system model or any physical models. I would love to see any new angle to tackle the problem. But again, I didn’t find new results out of here.
  Authors’ reply: Thank you for this comment. We agree that equifinality and parameter dependence are long-standing challenges; however, our work goes beyond restating this difficulty by quantitatively diagnosing when and how it arises, and under what conditions it can be reduced. In particular, using synthetic experiments with known ground truth, we show that parameter estimation based on temperature observations at a single depth is fundamentally ill-posed: multiple parameter combinations (e.g. h and β) collapse onto an identifiable product h(1+β⁻¹), and soil parameters (λ, C) exhibit strong correlations with a large spread in their individual estimates . Crucially, we then demonstrate that this non-identifiability is not intrinsic to the model alone but depends on the observational configuration: adding a second temperature depth resolves this degeneracy and enables reliable recovery of thermal conductivity and heat capacity, independent of initial conditions . At the same time, we show that some confounding cannot be resolved without additional physics or data—for example, sensible and latent heat fluxes remain inseparable without direct flux measurements . This provides a concrete, quantitative characterisation of equifinality in this setting and identifies specific pathways (multi-depth observations, parameter reparameterisation, or additional measurements) through which it can be mitigated. This moves beyond diagnosing equifinality by explicitly linking identifiability to observational design, thereby providing guidance on what measurements are required to constrain specific parameter combinations.
  
  Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6015-AC1

Ruiyue Huang, Claire E. Heaney, and Maarten van Reeuwijk

Data sets

Eddy covariance data measured at the CAP LTER flux tower located in the west Phoenix, AZ neighborhood of Maryvale from 2011-12-16 through 2012-12-31 Winston Chow https://doi.org/10.6073/pasta/fed17d67583eda16c439216ca40b0669

Model code and software

SEB-model Ruiyue Huang https://github.com/RuiyueH/SEB-model

SEB model Ruiyue Huang https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18004983

Ruiyue Huang, Claire E. Heaney, and Maarten van Reeuwijk

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Short summary

This paper uses the Neural Physics approach to determine parameters of a simple land-surface model. We show that we can only obtain a reliable parameter estimation using soil temperature measurements at more than one depth, and that latent and sensible heat fluxes cannot be differentiated. We then apply the inverse model to real urban flux tower data and show that parameters, as well as various heat fluxes, can be reliably estimated using an observed value for the effective surface albedo.


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