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https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-903
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-903
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
17 Mar 2025
| 17 Mar 2025
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
ESD Ideas: Extended net zero simulations are critical for informed decision making
Abstract. Climate changes under net zero emissions will take many centuries to play out, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere and in the ocean and cryosphere. New millennial-length Earth System Model simulations are required to better understand these committed changes and their dependence on delays in reaching net zero emissions.
How to cite. King, A. D., Abram, N. J., Alastrué de Asenjo, E., and Ziehn, T.: ESD Ideas: Extended net zero simulations are critical for informed decision making, EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-903, 2025.
Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.
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Andrew D. King
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
ARC Centre of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century
School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Kulin nations, Australia
Nerilie J. Abram
ARC Centre of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century
Research School of Earth Sciences, The Australian National University, Ngunnawal country, Canberra ACT 2601, Australia
Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Institute of Oceanography, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
Tilo Ziehn
CSIRO Environment, Aspendale, Kulin nations, Australia
Short summary
It is vital that climate changes under net zero emissions are well understood to support decision making processes. Current modelling efforts are insufficient, partly due to limited simulation lengths. We propose a framework for 1000-year-long simulations that attempts to minimise computing resources by leveraging existing simulations. This will ultimately increase understanding of the implications of current climate policies for the Earth System over coming decades and centuries.
It is vital that climate changes under net zero emissions are well understood to support...