Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-774
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-774
24 Mar 2025
 | 24 Mar 2025

Machine Learning-Based Downscaling of Aerosol Size Distributions from a Global Climate Model

Antti Vartiainen, Santtu Mikkonen, Ville Leinonen, Tuukka Petäjä, Alfred Wiedensohler, Thomas Kühn, and Tuuli Miinalainen

Abstract. Air pollution, particularly exposure to ultrafine particles (UFPs) with diameters below 100 nm, poses significant health risks, yet their spatial and temporal variability complicates impact assessments. This study explores the potential of machine learning (ML) techniques in enhancing the accuracy of a global aerosol-climate model's outputs through statistical downscaling to better represent observed data. Specifically, the study focuses on the particle number size distributions from the global aerosol-climate model ECHAM-HAMMOZ. The coarse horizontal resolution of ECHAM-HAMMOZ (approx. 200 km) makes modeling sub-gridscale phenomena, such as UFP concentrations, highly challenging. Data from three European measurement stations were used as target of downscaling, covering nucleation, Aitken, and accumulation particle size modes. Six different ML methods were employed, with hyperparameter optimization and feature selection integrated for model improvement. Results showed a notable improvement in prediction accuracy for all particle modes compared to the original global model outputs, particularly for accumulation mode, which achieved the highest fit indices. Challenges remained in downscaling the nucleation mode, likely due to its high variability and the discrepancy in spatial scale between the climate model representation and the underlying processes. Additionally, the study revealed that the choice of downscaling method requires careful consideration of spatial and temporal dimensions as well as the characteristics of the target variable, as different particle size modes or variables in other studies may necessitate tailored approaches. The study demonstrates the feasibility of ML-based downscaling for enhancing air quality assessments. This approach could support future epidemiological studies and inform policies on pollutant exposure. Future integration of ML models dynamically into global climate model frameworks could further refine climate predictions and health impact studies.

Competing interests: One author is a member of the editorial board of journal "Atmospheric Measurement Techniques".

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this paper. While Copernicus Publications makes every effort to include appropriate place names, the final responsibility lies with the authors. Views expressed in the text are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher.
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Journal article(s) based on this preprint

24 Oct 2025
Machine learning-based downscaling of aerosol size distributions from a global climate model
Antti Vartiainen, Santtu Mikkonen, Ville Leinonen, Tuukka Petäjä, Alfred Wiedensohler, Thomas Kühn, and Tuuli Miinalainen
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 18, 5763–5782, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-5763-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-5763-2025, 2025
Short summary
Antti Vartiainen, Santtu Mikkonen, Ville Leinonen, Tuukka Petäjä, Alfred Wiedensohler, Thomas Kühn, and Tuuli Miinalainen

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-774', Anonymous Referee #1, 17 Apr 2025
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Antti Vartiainen, 08 Aug 2025
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-774', Anonymous Referee #2, 03 Jun 2025
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Antti Vartiainen, 08 Aug 2025

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-774', Anonymous Referee #1, 17 Apr 2025
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Antti Vartiainen, 08 Aug 2025
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-774', Anonymous Referee #2, 03 Jun 2025
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Antti Vartiainen, 08 Aug 2025

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
AR by Antti Vartiainen on behalf of the Authors (08 Aug 2025)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (18 Aug 2025) by Daniel Perez-Ramirez
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (25 Aug 2025)
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (02 Sep 2025)
ED: Publish as is (02 Sep 2025) by Daniel Perez-Ramirez
AR by Antti Vartiainen on behalf of the Authors (17 Sep 2025)  Manuscript 

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

24 Oct 2025
Machine learning-based downscaling of aerosol size distributions from a global climate model
Antti Vartiainen, Santtu Mikkonen, Ville Leinonen, Tuukka Petäjä, Alfred Wiedensohler, Thomas Kühn, and Tuuli Miinalainen
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 18, 5763–5782, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-5763-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-5763-2025, 2025
Short summary
Antti Vartiainen, Santtu Mikkonen, Ville Leinonen, Tuukka Petäjä, Alfred Wiedensohler, Thomas Kühn, and Tuuli Miinalainen
Antti Vartiainen, Santtu Mikkonen, Ville Leinonen, Tuukka Petäjä, Alfred Wiedensohler, Thomas Kühn, and Tuuli Miinalainen

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Short summary
Global climate models, commonly used for climate predictions, struggle at capturing local-scale variations in air quality. We have used measurements of ultrafine particles (UFPs), a less understood air pollutant with potentially significant health implications, for training machine learning models that can substantially reduce the inaccuracy in UFP concentrations predicted by a climate model. This approach could aid epidemiological studies of ultrafine particles by extending exposure records.
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