Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-657
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-657
18 Feb 2025
 | 18 Feb 2025

Enhancing coastal winds and surface ocean currents with deep learning for short-term wave forecasting

Manuel García-León, José María García-Valdecasas, Lotfi Aouf, Alice Dalphinet, Juan Asensio, Stefania Angela Ciliberti, Breogán Gómez, Víctor Aquino, Roland Aznar, and Marcos Sotillo

Abstract. Accurate short-term wave forecasts are crucial for numerous maritime activities. Wind and surface currents, the primary forcings for spectral wave models, directly influence forecast accuracy. While remote sensing technologies like Satellite Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) and High Frequency Radar (HFR) provide high-resolution spatio-temporal data, their integration into operational ocean forecasting remains challenging. This contribution proposes a methodology for improving these operational forcings by correcting them with Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). These ANNs leverage remote sensing data as targets, learning complex spatial patterns from the existing forcing fields used as predictors. The methodology has been tested at three pilot sites of the Iberian-Biscay-Ireland region: (i) Galicia, (ii) Tarragona and (iii) Gran Canaria.

Using SAR as reference, the ANN corrected winds present Root Mean Square Deviation (RMSD) reductions close to 35 % respect to ECMWF-IFS, and improvements close to 3 % for the scatter-index. Surface currents are also improved with ANNs, reaching speed and directional biases close to 2 cm/s and 6º and correlation close to 35 % and 50 %, respectively. Using these ANN forcings in a regional spectral wave model (Copernicus Marine IBI-WAV NRT) lead to improvements in the Wave Height (Hm0) bias and RMSD around 10 % and 5 % at the NE Atlantic. Mean wave period (Tm02) also improves, with reductions of 17 % and 5 % in bias and RMSD. Furthermore, during extreme events (e.g. storm Arwen at Galicia, November 2021), the Hm0 was corrected close to 0.5m and Tm02 by around 0.4 s.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this paper. While Copernicus Publications makes every effort to include appropriate place names, the final responsibility lies with the authors. Views expressed in the text are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher.
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Journal article(s) based on this preprint

02 Dec 2025
Enhancing coastal winds and surface ocean currents with deep learning for short-term wave forecasting
Manuel García-León, José María García-Valdecasas, Lotfi Aouf, Alice Dalphinet, Juan Asensio, Stefania Angela Ciliberti, Breogán Gómez, Víctor Aquino, Roland Aznar, and Marcos Sotillo
Ocean Sci., 21, 3265–3290, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-3265-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-3265-2025, 2025
Short summary
Manuel García-León, José María García-Valdecasas, Lotfi Aouf, Alice Dalphinet, Juan Asensio, Stefania Angela Ciliberti, Breogán Gómez, Víctor Aquino, Roland Aznar, and Marcos Sotillo

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-657', Anonymous Referee #1, 04 Jun 2025
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Manuel Garcia-Leon, 07 Oct 2025
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-657', Anonymous Referee #2, 04 Jul 2025
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Manuel Garcia-Leon, 07 Oct 2025

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-657', Anonymous Referee #1, 04 Jun 2025
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Manuel Garcia-Leon, 07 Oct 2025
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-657', Anonymous Referee #2, 04 Jul 2025
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Manuel Garcia-Leon, 07 Oct 2025

Peer review completion

AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
AR by Manuel Garcia-Leon on behalf of the Authors (07 Oct 2025)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (15 Oct 2025) by Matthew P. Humphreys
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (30 Oct 2025)
ED: Publish as is (14 Nov 2025) by Matthew P. Humphreys
AR by Manuel Garcia-Leon on behalf of the Authors (17 Nov 2025)

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

02 Dec 2025
Enhancing coastal winds and surface ocean currents with deep learning for short-term wave forecasting
Manuel García-León, José María García-Valdecasas, Lotfi Aouf, Alice Dalphinet, Juan Asensio, Stefania Angela Ciliberti, Breogán Gómez, Víctor Aquino, Roland Aznar, and Marcos Sotillo
Ocean Sci., 21, 3265–3290, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-3265-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-3265-2025, 2025
Short summary
Manuel García-León, José María García-Valdecasas, Lotfi Aouf, Alice Dalphinet, Juan Asensio, Stefania Angela Ciliberti, Breogán Gómez, Víctor Aquino, Roland Aznar, and Marcos Sotillo
Manuel García-León, José María García-Valdecasas, Lotfi Aouf, Alice Dalphinet, Juan Asensio, Stefania Angela Ciliberti, Breogán Gómez, Víctor Aquino, Roland Aznar, and Marcos Sotillo

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Short summary
Accurate short-term wave forecasts are key for coastal activities. These forecasts rely on wind and currents as forcing, which in this work were both enhanced using neural networks (NNs) trained with satellite and radar data. Tested at three European sites, the NN-corrected winds were 35 % more accurate, and currents also improved. This led to improved IBI wave model predictions of wave height and period by 10 % and 17 %, respectively; even correcting under extreme events.
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