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https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-653
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-653
20 Mar 2025
 | 20 Mar 2025

Simulating the Holocene evolution of Ryder Glacier, North Greenland

Jamie Barnett, Felicity Alice Holmes, Joshua Cuzzone, Henning Åkesson, Mathieu Morlighem, Matt O'Regan, Johan Nilsson, Nina Kirchner, and Martin Jakobsson

Abstract. The Greenland Ice Sheet's negative mass balance is driven by a sensitivity to both a warming atmosphere and ocean. The fidelity of ice-sheet models in accounting for ice-ocean interaction is inherently uncertain and often constrained against recent fluctuations in the ice-sheet margin from the previous decades. The geological record can be utilised to contextualise ice-sheet mass loss and understand the drivers of changes at the marine margin across climatic shifts and previous extended warm periods, aiding our understanding of future ice-sheet behaviour. Here, we use the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM) to explore the Holocene evolution of Ryder Glacier draining into Sherard Osborn Fjord, Northern Greenland. Our modelling results are constrained with terrestrial reconstructions of the paleo-ice sheet margin and an extensive marine sediment record from Sherard Osborn Fjord that details ice dynamics over the past 12.5 ka years. By employing a consistent mesh resolution of <1 km at the ice-ocean boundary, we assess the importance of atmospheric and oceanic changes to Ryder Glacier's Holocene behaviour. Our simulations show that the initial retreat of the ice margin after the Younger Dryas cold period was driven by a warming climate and the resulting fluctuations in Surface Mass Balance. Changing atmospheric conditions remain the first order control in the timing of ice retreat during the Holocene. We find ice-ocean interactions become increasingly fundamental to Ryder's retreat in the mid-Holocene; with higher than contemporary melt rates required to force grounding line retreat and capture the collapse of the ice tongue during the Holocene Thermal Maximum. Regrowth of the tongue during the neo-glacial cooling of the late Holocene is necessary to advance both the terrestrial and marine margins of the glacier. Our results stress the importance of accurately resolving the ice-ocean interface in modelling efforts over centennial and millennial time scales, in particular the role of floating ice tongues and submarine melt, and provide vital analogous for the future evolution of Ryder in a warming climate.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this paper. While Copernicus Publications makes every effort to include appropriate place names, the final responsibility lies with the authors. Views expressed in the text are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher.
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Journal article(s) based on this preprint

10 Sep 2025
Simulating the Holocene evolution of Ryder Glacier, North Greenland
Jamie Barnett, Felicity A. Holmes, Joshua Cuzzone, Henning Åkesson, Mathieu Morlighem, Matt O'Regan, Johan Nilsson, Nina Kirchner, and Martin Jakobsson
The Cryosphere, 19, 3631–3653, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3631-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3631-2025, 2025
Short summary
Jamie Barnett, Felicity Alice Holmes, Joshua Cuzzone, Henning Åkesson, Mathieu Morlighem, Matt O'Regan, Johan Nilsson, Nina Kirchner, and Martin Jakobsson

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-653', Anonymous Referee #1, 27 Mar 2025
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-653', Anonymous Referee #2, 30 May 2025

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-653', Anonymous Referee #1, 27 Mar 2025
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-653', Anonymous Referee #2, 30 May 2025

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
ED: Publish subject to revisions (further review by editor and referees) (24 Jun 2025) by Stephen Livingstone
AR by Jamie Barnett on behalf of the Authors (25 Jun 2025)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (26 Jun 2025) by Stephen Livingstone
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (27 Jun 2025)
ED: Publish as is (27 Jun 2025) by Stephen Livingstone
AR by Jamie Barnett on behalf of the Authors (04 Jul 2025)  Manuscript 

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

10 Sep 2025
Simulating the Holocene evolution of Ryder Glacier, North Greenland
Jamie Barnett, Felicity A. Holmes, Joshua Cuzzone, Henning Åkesson, Mathieu Morlighem, Matt O'Regan, Johan Nilsson, Nina Kirchner, and Martin Jakobsson
The Cryosphere, 19, 3631–3653, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3631-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3631-2025, 2025
Short summary
Jamie Barnett, Felicity Alice Holmes, Joshua Cuzzone, Henning Åkesson, Mathieu Morlighem, Matt O'Regan, Johan Nilsson, Nina Kirchner, and Martin Jakobsson
Jamie Barnett, Felicity Alice Holmes, Joshua Cuzzone, Henning Åkesson, Mathieu Morlighem, Matt O'Regan, Johan Nilsson, Nina Kirchner, and Martin Jakobsson

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The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.

Short summary
Understanding how ice sheets have changed in the past can allow us to make better predictions for the future. By running a state-of-the-art model of Ryder Glacier, North Greenland, over the past 12,000 years we find that both a warming atmosphere and ocean play a key role in the evolution of the Glacier. Our conclusions stress that accurately quantifying the ice sheet’s interactions with the ocean are required to predict future changes and reliable sea level rise estimates.
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