Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-604
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-604
10 Jun 2025
 | 10 Jun 2025

If the Yedoma thaws, will we notice? Quantifying detection limits of top-down methane monitoring infrastructures

Martijn Pallandt, Abhishek Chatterjee, Lesley Ott, Julia Marshall, and Mathias Göckede

Abstract. Large quantities of carbon are stored in Yedoma permafrost. When temperatures rise, its high ice content is a catalyst for rapid degradation, which in turn may cause the release of large quantities of carbon. 40 % to 70 % of the radiative forcing from this release is expected to be in the form of CH4. In this observing system simulation experiment, we examined the capabilities of three atmospheric GHG monitoring platforms i.e. tall towers, and the TROPOMI and MERLIN satellites, to detect changes in CH4 release from increased Yedoma thaw. A set of environments are simulated with the GEOS-5 model: one representing a 'natural' emission case as the reference, a second featuring enhanced CH4 release from Yedoma soils. From within these modelled environments, synthetic measurements are generated following best in situ practices and realistic error characterizations.

For the satellites we find the lowest detection limits when aggregating measurements over a 112 day period, at Yedoma fluxes of 144 % to 367 % of current conditions. These factors are up to 1.2 times higher when taking transport modelling uncertainties into account. The tall tower network shows a wide range of detection lower limits, the lowest at only 107 % of current fluxes, but has considerably higher lower detection limits when factoring in transport errors. Overall, the individual systems appear to lack the ability to detect and attribute small changes in Yedoma CH4 fluxes, and would either need to be used in combination or require a considerable time to detect changes under higher emission scenarios.

Competing interests: At least one of the (co-)authors is a member of the editorial board of AMT.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this paper. While Copernicus Publications makes every effort to include appropriate place names, the final responsibility lies with the authors. Views expressed in the text are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher.
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Martijn Pallandt, Abhishek Chatterjee, Lesley Ott, Julia Marshall, and Mathias Göckede

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  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-604', Anonymous Referee #1, 24 Jun 2025
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-604', Anonymous Referee #2, 09 Jul 2025
Martijn Pallandt, Abhishek Chatterjee, Lesley Ott, Julia Marshall, and Mathias Göckede
Martijn Pallandt, Abhishek Chatterjee, Lesley Ott, Julia Marshall, and Mathias Göckede

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Short summary
Climate change is greatly affecting the Arctic. Among these changes is the thawing of permanently frozen soil, which may increase the release of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas (GHG). In this study we investigated the capabilities of tall GHG measuring towers and two satellite systems to detect this methane release. We find that these systems have different strengths and weaknesses, and that individually they struggle to detect these changes, though combined they might cover their weak spots.
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