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https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5963
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5963
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
23 Dec 2025
| 23 Dec 2025
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
Updated global and regional trends of stratospheric ozone profiles
Abstract. We present an updated evaluation of stratospheric ozone profile trends in the 60°S–60°N latitude range using long-term ground-based and satellite climate data records, as well as simulations by chemistry-climate models. The trends are evaluated using the LOTUS (Long-term Ozone Trends and Uncertainties in the Stratosphere) regression model.
Analyses of satellite data confirm statistically significant positive ozone trends in the period 2000–2024 in the upper stratosphere of ~1–3% decade-1, with larger trends at mid-latitudes compared to the tropics. The trends are slightly positive or close to zero in the middle stratosphere, and mostly negative, −1–2% decade-1, in the lower stratosphere; but they are not statistically significant. The ozone trends are similar to previous analyses (2000–2020 trends).
Ozone trends in 2000–2024 predicted by climate model simulations are in good agreement with combined satellite trends. In the upper stratosphere, models predict a slightly stronger ozone recovery than observations. In the lower stratosphere, both models and satellite observations report negative trends of in the tropics, while modelled ozone trends are slightly positive at mid-latitudes.
Ozone profile trends over several stations estimated from ground-based records capture the same overall vertical pattern of ozone trends as merged gridded satellite datasets.
Analyses of regional ozone trends in 2003–2024 using merged satellite datasets confirmed the previous observations of a longitudinal structure in ozone trends in the NH mid-latitude stratosphere, with positive trends over Scandinavia and negative trends over Siberia. However, the magnitude of this dipole-like structure is reduced compared to previous analyses.
How to cite. Sofieva, V. F., Szelag, M. E., Kramarova, N., Damadeo, R., Steinbrecht, W., Petropavlovskikh, I., Vigouroux, C., Maillard Barras, E., Zawada, D., Tourpali, K., Frith, S. M., Wild, J. D., Davis, S. M., Arosio, C., Weber, M., Rozanov, A., Auffarth, B., Froidevaux, L., Fuller, R., Degenstein, D., Dube, K., Effertz, P., Leblanc, T., Ancellet, G., Godin-Beekmann, S., McConville, G., Querel, R., Smale, D., DeBacker, M.-R., Mahieu, E., and Sussmann, R.: Updated global and regional trends of stratospheric ozone profiles, EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5963, 2025.
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Latest update: 23 Dec 2025
Viktoria F. Sofieva
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
Monika E. Szelag
Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
Natalia Kramarova
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
Robert Damadeo
NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA, USA
Wolfgang Steinbrecht
DWD (German Weather Service), Hohenpeissenberg, Germany
Irina Petropavlovskikh
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Science (CIRES), University of Colorado-Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USA
Corinne Vigouroux
Royal Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy (BIRA-IASB), Uccle, Belgium
Eliane Maillard Barras
Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology, MeteoSwiss, Payerne, Switzerland
Daniel Zawada
Institute of Space and Atmospheric Studies, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Canada
Kleareti Tourpali
Aristotle University, Thessaloniki, Greece
Stacey M. Frith
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
Science Systems and Applications, Inc, Greenbelt, MD, USA
Jeannette D. Wild
Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center (ESSIC/CISESS), University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
NOAA/NESDIS/Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR), College Park, MD, USA
Sean M. Davis
NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USA
Carlo Arosio
Institute of Environmental Physics, University of Bremen, Germany
Mark Weber
Institute of Environmental Physics, University of Bremen, Germany
Alexei Rozanov
Institute of Environmental Physics, University of Bremen, Germany
Brian Auffarth
Institute of Environmental Physics, University of Bremen, Germany
Lucien Froidevaux
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California, USA
Ryan Fuller
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California, USA
Doug Degenstein
Institute of Space and Atmospheric Studies, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Canada
Kimberlee Dube
Institute of Space and Atmospheric Studies, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Canada
Peter Effertz
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Science (CIRES), University of Colorado-Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USA
Thierry Leblanc
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Wrightwood, CA, USA
Gérard Ancellet
Laboratoire Atmosphères Observations Spatiales (LATMOS), CNRS, Sorbonne Université, Paris, France
Sophie Godin-Beekmann
Laboratoire Atmosphères Observations Spatiales (LATMOS), CNRS, Sorbonne Université, Paris, France
Glen McConville
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Science (CIRES), University of Colorado-Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USA
Richard Querel
New Zealand Institute for Earth Science Limited, Lauder, New Zealand
Dan Smale
New Zealand Institute for Earth Science Limited, Lauder, New Zealand
Marie-Renee DeBacker
Université de Reims Champagne-Ardenne, France
Emmanuel Mahieu
Department of Astrophysics, Geophysics and Oceanography, UR SPHERES, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium
Ralf Sussmann
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), IMK-IFU, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
Short summary
We present an updated evaluation of stratospheric ozone profile trends in the 60°S–60°N latitude range using long-term ground-based and satellite climate data records, as well as simulations by chemistry-climate models. Analyses confirm the statistically significant positive ozone trends in the upper stratosphere of ~1–3 % decade-1. The trends are close to zero in the middle stratosphere, and mostly negative in the lower stratosphere, but they are not statistically significant.
We present an updated evaluation of stratospheric ozone profile trends in the 60°S–60°N latitude...